core/docs/research/ratification-packet-2026-07-24.md

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Ratification Packet — deduction_serving_enabled and curriculum_serving_enabled

Tier S1 (generalization-arc-2026-07-24 §6). Evidence collation only — the flag flip is Shay's decision alone, never inferred from this document or from approval of adjacent work. This packet has two independent sections: one recording a decision already made, one recording why a decision has not been made.


1. deduction_serving_enabled — RATIFIED ON (2026-07-24, main @ 5fd9a861)

This section is a record, not an input to the decision. Shay ratified the flag flip on 2026-07-24; the evidence below is what stood behind that ratification, preserved for audit and for anyone rolling back or re-deriving the decision later.

1.1 Sealed-practice ledger — 25 bands, 720/720 wrong=0 each

chat/data/deduction_serve_ledger.json (schema deduction_serve_ledger_v1, provenance evals.deduction_serve.practice.runner.seal_ledger, content a056f899…). The engine only reads this artifact — it is committed, SHA-sealed, and never written by serving.

# classes committed correct wrong refused
25 see below 720 each 720 each 0 0

Classes (25): atomic, categorical, conditional_chain, conditional_single, disjunctive (Band v1/v1b) · en_atomic, en_conditional_chain, en_conditional_single, en_disjunctive (Band v2-EN, ADR-0257) · en_member_atomic, en_member_chain, en_member_negative, en_member_single (Band v3-MEM, ADR-0258) · en_condmem_chain, en_condmem_conditional, en_condmem_disjunctive, en_condmem_fused (Band v4-CM, ADR-0259) · en_verb_chain, en_verb_fact, en_verb_negative, en_verb_universal (Band v5-VP, ADR-0260) · en_exist_chain, en_exist_negative, en_exist_universal, en_exist_witness (Band v6-EX, ADR-0261).

1.2 Earned-license gate ceilings (ADR-0175 §4a, core/reliability_gate/)

Action.SERVE ceiling is θ=0.99 (core/reliability_gate/ceilings.py). The floor is a pinned one-sided Wilson lower bound (core/reliability_gate/floor.py::conservative_floor), deterministic and replay-stable (no learned weights, no sampling). For a perfect record (successes == committed) the bound reduces to committed / (committed + z²) with z = WILSON_Z = 2.576; solving committed / (committed + z²) ≥ 0.99 gives committed ≥ 99·z² ≈ 656.9, i.e. n ≥ 657 — where the standing "n≥657 committed" figure comes from, not a chosen round number. All 25 classes commit 720 ≥ 657 with a perfect record, clearing the floor with margin.

1.3 Serve-lane results — production pipeline, independent gold

evals/deduction_serve/report.json runs the exact pipeline chat/deduction_surface.py calls in serving (shape-gate → reader → projector → ROBDD engine), scored against independently-authored gold — 166/166 correct, 0 wrong, 0 declined, across six splits:

split n band
v1 28 propositional / categorical
v2_en 26 English opaque-clause arguments
v2_member 26 singular-membership arguments
v2_condmem 26 conditional-membership fusion
v2_verb 28 verb-predicate arguments
v2_exist 32 existential arguments

wrong staying 0 is the lane's non-negotiable gate (a decline is a coverage miss, tracked but never conflated with a wrong answer); all_correct=true confirms every committed case, not just the wrong-count, matches gold.

1.4 Commit gate — narrow by construction

chat/deduction_surface.py::looks_like_deductive_argument is a single regex: a sentence-initial "therefore" conclusion clause (_ARGUMENT_CONCLUSION_RE). This is a genuine signal of intent — text shaped that way IS an argument — so the composer can commit on shape alone without risking hijacking ordinary turns. (Contrast with curriculum's gate, §2.4 below, which cannot use shape alone.) Once committed, every branch is fail-closed (INV-34): a decided verdict, a typed reader refusal, or the generic out-of-band surface — never a silent fall-through to a different composer.

1.5 Blast radius (verified before the flip, not assumed)

  • Deductive suite (core test --suite deductive) — 268 passed with the flag on.
  • chat/runtime.py::_maybe_pack_grounded_surface — the deduction branch is checked before the empty-vault gate (unlike pack/teaching/partial/oov): a pure function of input text, independent of vault/field warm-or-cold state, so it cannot perturb any other dispatch path's preconditions. A claimed turn sets grounding_source="deduction"; every other path is reached exactly as before when the composer declines (DispatchAttempt(source="deduction", outcome="skipped", ...)).
  • Lane pins (scripts/verify_lane_shas.py) stayed 10/11 across the flip — unchanged, i.e. the flip touched nothing any other pinned lane measures.

1.6 Rollback

One line: deduction_serving_enabled: bool = TrueFalse in core/config.py. Flag-off is byte-identical to pre-arc dispatch — pinned by tests/test_deduction_surface.py::test_flag_off_preserves_pack_token_gloss_byte_identity. No residue: the composer is a pure function gated entirely by the one flag read at chat/runtime.py:1748; nothing it touches persists state.

1.7 Unearned shapes stay disclosed, not withheld

Every band above is licensed. A future band, or a deployment whose ledger is stripped, still gets the sound ROBDD answer — served DISCLOSED via the _UNVERIFIED_SHAPE_DISCLOSURE hedge (chat/deduction_surface.py), never presented as verified. This is what makes serving an earned capability rather than a merely flagged one, and it is why disclosure is not itself evidence against ratifying a licensed band.


2. curriculum_serving_enabled — stays OFF (ADR-0262)

This section exists to make the non-decision as auditable as the decision above: every curriculum band is unearned, so flipping this flag would enable a capability that answers disclosed, never authoritatively — sound, but with no demonstrated track record on the pipeline serving it.

2.1 Same shape of evidence, opposite conclusion

evals/curriculum_serve/report.json: physics lane 32/32 correct, 0 wrong, 0 declined, all_correct=true, 5 anti-recall probes (≥ the §4.7 floor of 3). This is a clean lane pass — the mechanism is proven — but it says nothing about volume, which is the actual gate.

2.2 Why no band can earn SERVE from present data (ADR-0262 §5.1)

The reliability floor (§1.2 above) needs n ≥ 657 committed per band, and a band here is (subject × relation family) — e.g. curriculum_physics_causal. Physics teaches 7 causal + 9 modal relations total (§6 below has the full count), so at most 16 questions in the entire subject can ever come back entailed — roughly 25× short of a single band's floor, before even asking for a mix of entailed/refuted/ unknown outcomes (a real reliability claim needs more than one outcome class repeated). This is a volume ceiling on the ratified curriculum, not a defect in the reader, the bands, or the engine — all of which are the same verified components §1 already licensed.

2.3 The ledger says it plainly

Every one of the curriculum bands present in a ledger would show committed in the low tens, nowhere near 657. (No curriculum-specific sealed ledger exists yet, precisely because sealing one at this volume would just document the shortfall — see project-curriculum-grounded-serving and S6, docs/research/curriculum-volume-quantification-2026-07-24.md.)

2.4 Commit gate — routability, not shape (ADR-0262 §5.3, already fixed)

Unlike deduction's "therefore" gate, curriculum's "Does …?" shape is not itself a signal of intent — it is one of the most common ways to open any English question. chat/curriculum_surface.py::is_curriculum_question commits only when the question parses to three tokens AND both terms are vocabulary some served subject actually teaches (resolve_domain); an untaught_vocabulary refusal is explicitly not a claim (the composer declines the turn entirely, byte-identical to before this composer existed). This was a real defect found and fixed this arc (commit-gate firing on any Does …? text, e.g. "Does the build pass?"); the fix is already on main and is not part of what remains gated by this flag.

2.5 What flipping ON today would mean

Every served answer would carry the _UNVERIFIED_SHAPE_DISCLOSURE hedge — "(answered from my curriculum, but I haven't yet earned a verified track record on questions of this shape)" — because _license_gate (chat/curriculum_surface.py) finds no Action.SERVE license for any curriculum_<domain>_<family> band. The capability would be real and sound (same argument bands, same ROBDD engine as §1) but never authoritative. This is not unsafe to ship; it is simply not yet earned, and the standing rule (Shay, 2026-07-24) is that a flag flips on earned evidence, not on proximity to it — see project-deduction-serving-ratified.

2.6 Rollback / blast radius, for parity with §1.6

Same shape as deduction: one line in core/config.py (curriculum_serving_enabled: bool = False, already the default — nothing to roll back), checked immediately after the deduction branch in chat/runtime.py:1764, pure function of text + ratified curriculum, no vault/field dependency. Flag-off is byte-identical to pre-arc dispatch by construction (the branch is dead code when the flag is False).


3. What would close §2 (evidence only — not a proposal to act)

Nothing in Tier S closes this gap; it closes only when ratified curriculum content grows roughly 25× per served (subject × family) — a content question for Shay, not an engineering one. See S6's quantification, docs/research/curriculum-volume-quantification-2026-07-24.md, for the per-subject arithmetic.