docs(generalization): Tier S evidence packet — ratification record + curriculum-volume quantification (S1, S6)

docs/research/curriculum-volume-quantification-2026-07-24.md

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+# Curriculum-Volume Quantification — ADR-0262 §5.1
+
+**Tier S6** (generalization-arc-2026-07-24 §6). Evidence only. This
+document does not propose ratifying curriculum content or flipping
+`curriculum_serving_enabled` — both are Shay's decisions
+([[project-curriculum-serving-ratified]] doctrine: a flag flips on earned
+evidence, not proximity to it). It answers one question precisely: *how
+short of a SERVE license is each served `(subject × relation family)` band
+today, measured against the actual ratified corpora, not an estimate.*
+
+Method: `teaching.curriculum_premises.load_curriculum(domain)` — the same
+loader the curriculum composer uses in serving — run against each of the
+four subjects `chat.curriculum_surface.SERVED_DOMAINS` currently routes to.
+Counts below are chain counts (ratified, vocabulary-resident, `review_status
+== "reviewed"`), i.e. exactly the population `compile_premises` would draw
+premises from; nothing here touches unmounted or unratified content.
+
+## 1. The floor, restated precisely (§1.2 of the ratification packet)
+
+`Action.SERVE` needs a one-sided Wilson lower bound ≥ θ=0.99
+(`core/reliability_gate/ceilings.py`, `core/reliability_gate/floor.py`). For
+a perfect record this reduces to `committed / (committed + z²)` with
+`z = 2.576`, which crosses 0.99 at **committed ≥ 657**.
+
+657 committed cases alone is not sufficient — the plan (§6) and the
+ratification packet both require a **genuine outcome mix**, not 657
+restatements of the same fact padded with paraphrase (repetition-padding
+was already considered and rejected as dishonest earlier in this arc:
+`conservative_floor` cannot distinguish "657 independent facts" from "16
+facts asked 41 times each," but a ledger that gamed the floor that way
+would not have *earned* anything). Treating "genuine mix" as roughly a
+three-way split across `entailed` / `refuted` / `unknown` (the plan's own
+working assumption, not a formally ratified policy — flagged here as an
+assumption, not fact) puts the **entailed bucket's floor at ≈219 distinct
+taught relations** — `⌈657 / 3⌉`. That is where the plan's "≈219 per
+subject × family" figure comes from; this document supplies the measured
+`n` for every currently-served band to compare against it.
+
+## 2. Measured ratified-chain counts, per subject × family (2026-07-24)
+
+| domain | family | ratified chains (n) | 657÷n | 219÷n |
+|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
+| physics | causal | 7 | 94× | 31× |
+| physics | modal | 9 | 73× | 24× |
+| mathematics_logic | modal | 4 | 164× | 55× |
+| mathematics_logic | sequence | 4 | 164× | 55× |
+| mathematics_logic | contrast | 8 | 82× | 27× |
+| mathematics_logic | evidential | 8 | 82× | 27× |
+| systems_software | causal | 7 | 94× | 31× |
+| systems_software | modal | 6 | 110× | 37× |
+| systems_software | sequence | 3 | 219× | 73× |
+| philosophy_theology | modal | 8 | 82× | 27× |
+| philosophy_theology | contrast | 8 | 82× | 27× |
+
+11 bands are live (a subject × family pair with ≥1 ratified chain routes
+questions today, per `chat.curriculum_surface.band_for`); every one is
+between 24× and 73× short of the entailed-bucket floor alone, before even
+authoring the matching refuted/unknown volume. **No served subject has a
+family close enough to flag as "next."** Systems-software `sequence` (n=3)
+is the thinnest; mathematics_logic `modal`/`sequence` (n=4 each) are tied
+for second-thinnest; physics `modal` (n=9) is the closest of the eleven,
+still 24× short.
+
+Total ratified chains per subject (all families, informational context —
+not a band-level floor since bands are scored per family, not per subject):
+physics 16, mathematics_logic 24, systems_software 16,
+philosophy_theology 16.
+
+## 3. Vocabulary is not the constraint
+
+`Curriculum.vocabulary` (every lemma the subject's mounted packs teach) is
+16 lemmas for physics/mathematics_logic/systems_software and **151** for
+philosophy_theology — an order of magnitude more vocabulary than chains in
+every subject. The gate `untaught_vocabulary` (§4.6) is not what is holding
+any band back; the terms are taught, the *relations between them* are not
+authored in ratified volume. This confirms ADR-0262 §5.1's framing: the
+blocker is curriculum content authorship, not reader/vocabulary coverage —
+see also S3's mechanism-vs-coverage instrument
+(`docs/research/vocab-trigger-instrument-2026-07-24.md`), which finds the
+curriculum path's own refusals are overwhelmingly coverage-class for a
+different reason (relation, not term, absent) while carrying zero
+`untaught_vocabulary` refusals in the committed lane corpus.
+
+## 4. What one subject fully reaching the floor would look like
+
+Taking physics `modal` (the closest band, n=9) as an illustration only: it
+would need roughly 210 more ratified `requires`/`enables` relations,
+authored and reviewed through the existing curriculum ratification
+pipeline, before an entailed bucket alone could support a 657-committed
+band — and that is before authoring the matching refuted/unknown volume
+this document is not attempting to size (refuted questions need explicit
+negative curriculum content the corpora do not currently carry at all;
+unknown questions are comparatively cheap to author from
+in-vocabulary-but-untaught pairings, so they are not expected to be the
+binding constraint).
+
+## 5. Non-goals of this document
+
+- Does not recommend which subject or family to grow first — that is
+  content strategy, Shay's call.
+- Does not estimate authoring effort/time (no clock-time estimates per
+  standing convention).
+- Does not touch `curriculum_serving_enabled` or any corpus file.
+
+Relates to [[project-curriculum-grounded-serving]],
+[[project-generalization-arc]], `docs/adr/ADR-0262-curriculum-grounded-serving.md` §5.1.

docs/research/ratification-packet-2026-07-24.md

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+# Ratification Packet — `deduction_serving_enabled` and `curriculum_serving_enabled`
+
+**Tier S1** (generalization-arc-2026-07-24 §6). Evidence collation only — the
+flag flip is Shay's decision alone, never inferred from this document or from
+approval of adjacent work. This packet has two independent sections: one
+recording a decision already made, one recording why a decision has not been
+made.
+
+---
+
+## 1. `deduction_serving_enabled` — RATIFIED ON (2026-07-24, main @ `5fd9a861`)
+
+This section is a **record**, not an input to the decision. Shay ratified the
+flag flip on 2026-07-24; the evidence below is what stood behind that
+ratification, preserved for audit and for anyone rolling back or re-deriving
+the decision later.
+
+### 1.1 Sealed-practice ledger — 25 bands, 720/720 wrong=0 each
+
+`chat/data/deduction_serve_ledger.json` (schema `deduction_serve_ledger_v1`,
+provenance `evals.deduction_serve.practice.runner.seal_ledger`, content
+`a056f899…`). The engine only *reads* this artifact — it is committed,
+SHA-sealed, and never written by serving.
+
+| # | classes | committed | correct | wrong | refused |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 25 | see below | 720 each | 720 each | **0** | 0 |
+
+Classes (25): `atomic`, `categorical`, `conditional_chain`,
+`conditional_single`, `disjunctive` (Band v1/v1b) · `en_atomic`,
+`en_conditional_chain`, `en_conditional_single`, `en_disjunctive` (Band
+v2-EN, ADR-0257) · `en_member_atomic`, `en_member_chain`,
+`en_member_negative`, `en_member_single` (Band v3-MEM, ADR-0258) ·
+`en_condmem_chain`, `en_condmem_conditional`, `en_condmem_disjunctive`,
+`en_condmem_fused` (Band v4-CM, ADR-0259) · `en_verb_chain`, `en_verb_fact`,
+`en_verb_negative`, `en_verb_universal` (Band v5-VP, ADR-0260) ·
+`en_exist_chain`, `en_exist_negative`, `en_exist_universal`,
+`en_exist_witness` (Band v6-EX, ADR-0261).
+
+### 1.2 Earned-license gate ceilings (ADR-0175 §4a, `core/reliability_gate/`)
+
+`Action.SERVE` ceiling is θ=0.99 (`core/reliability_gate/ceilings.py`). The
+floor is a pinned one-sided Wilson lower bound
+(`core/reliability_gate/floor.py::conservative_floor`), deterministic and
+replay-stable (no learned weights, no sampling). For a perfect record
+(`successes == committed`) the bound reduces to
+`committed / (committed + z²)` with `z = WILSON_Z = 2.576`; solving
+`committed / (committed + z²) ≥ 0.99` gives `committed ≥ 99·z² ≈ 656.9`,
+i.e. **n ≥ 657** — where the standing "n≥657 committed" figure comes from,
+not a chosen round number. All 25 classes commit 720 ≥ 657 with a perfect
+record, clearing the floor with margin.
+
+### 1.3 Serve-lane results — production pipeline, independent gold
+
+`evals/deduction_serve/report.json` runs the *exact* pipeline
+`chat/deduction_surface.py` calls in serving (shape-gate → reader →
+projector → ROBDD engine), scored against independently-authored gold —
+**166/166 correct, 0 wrong, 0 declined**, across six splits:
+
+| split | n | band |
+|---|---|---|
+| v1 | 28 | propositional / categorical |
+| v2_en | 26 | English opaque-clause arguments |
+| v2_member | 26 | singular-membership arguments |
+| v2_condmem | 26 | conditional-membership fusion |
+| v2_verb | 28 | verb-predicate arguments |
+| v2_exist | 32 | existential arguments |
+
+`wrong` staying 0 is the lane's non-negotiable gate (a decline is a coverage
+miss, tracked but never conflated with a wrong answer); `all_correct=true`
+confirms every committed case, not just the wrong-count, matches gold.
+
+### 1.4 Commit gate — narrow by construction
+
+`chat/deduction_surface.py::looks_like_deductive_argument` is a single
+regex: a sentence-initial `"therefore"` conclusion clause
+(`_ARGUMENT_CONCLUSION_RE`). This is a genuine signal of intent — text
+shaped that way IS an argument — so the composer can commit on shape alone
+without risking hijacking ordinary turns. (Contrast with curriculum's gate,
+§2.4 below, which cannot use shape alone.) Once committed, every branch is
+fail-closed (INV-34): a decided verdict, a typed reader refusal, or the
+generic out-of-band surface — never a silent fall-through to a different
+composer.
+
+### 1.5 Blast radius (verified before the flip, not assumed)
+
+- Deductive suite (`core test --suite deductive`) — 268 passed with the flag
+  on.
+- `chat/runtime.py::_maybe_pack_grounded_surface` — the deduction branch is
+  checked **before** the empty-vault gate (unlike pack/teaching/partial/oov):
+  a pure function of input text, independent of vault/field warm-or-cold
+  state, so it cannot perturb any other dispatch path's preconditions. A
+  claimed turn sets `grounding_source="deduction"`; every other path is
+  reached exactly as before when the composer declines
+  (`DispatchAttempt(source="deduction", outcome="skipped", ...)`).
+- Lane pins (`scripts/verify_lane_shas.py`) stayed 10/11 across the flip —
+  unchanged, i.e. the flip touched nothing any other pinned lane measures.
+
+### 1.6 Rollback
+
+One line: `deduction_serving_enabled: bool = True` → `False` in
+`core/config.py`. Flag-off is byte-identical to pre-arc dispatch — pinned by
+`tests/test_deduction_surface.py::test_flag_off_preserves_pack_token_gloss_byte_identity`.
+No residue: the composer is a pure function gated entirely by the one flag
+read at `chat/runtime.py:1748`; nothing it touches persists state.
+
+### 1.7 Unearned shapes stay disclosed, not withheld
+
+Every band above is licensed. A future band, or a deployment whose ledger is
+stripped, still gets the sound ROBDD answer — served DISCLOSED via the
+`_UNVERIFIED_SHAPE_DISCLOSURE` hedge (`chat/deduction_surface.py`), never
+presented as verified. This is what makes serving an *earned* capability
+rather than a merely flagged one, and it is why disclosure is not itself
+evidence against ratifying a *licensed* band.
+
+---
+
+## 2. `curriculum_serving_enabled` — stays OFF (ADR-0262)
+
+This section exists to make the non-decision as auditable as the decision
+above: **every curriculum band is unearned**, so flipping this flag would
+enable a capability that answers *disclosed*, never authoritatively — sound,
+but with no demonstrated track record on the pipeline serving it.
+
+### 2.1 Same shape of evidence, opposite conclusion
+
+`evals/curriculum_serve/report.json`: physics lane **32/32 correct, 0 wrong,
+0 declined**, `all_correct=true`, 5 anti-recall probes (≥ the §4.7 floor of
+3). This is a clean lane pass — the mechanism is proven — but it says
+nothing about *volume*, which is the actual gate.
+
+### 2.2 Why no band can earn SERVE from present data (ADR-0262 §5.1)
+
+The reliability floor (§1.2 above) needs **n ≥ 657 committed** per band, and
+a band here is `(subject × relation family)` — e.g.
+`curriculum_physics_causal`. Physics teaches 7 causal + 9 modal relations
+total (§6 below has the full count), so **at most 16 questions in the
+entire subject can ever come back `entailed`** — roughly 25× short of a
+single band's floor, before even asking for a *mix* of entailed/refuted/
+unknown outcomes (a real reliability claim needs more than one outcome
+class repeated). This is a volume ceiling on the ratified curriculum, not a
+defect in the reader, the bands, or the engine — all of which are the same
+verified components §1 already licensed.
+
+### 2.3 The ledger says it plainly
+
+Every one of the curriculum bands present in a ledger would show `committed`
+in the low tens, nowhere near 657. (No curriculum-specific sealed ledger
+exists yet, precisely because sealing one at this volume would just
+document the shortfall — see [[project-curriculum-grounded-serving]] and
+S6, `docs/research/curriculum-volume-quantification-2026-07-24.md`.)
+
+### 2.4 Commit gate — routability, not shape (ADR-0262 §5.3, already fixed)
+
+Unlike deduction's `"therefore"` gate, curriculum's `"Does …?"` shape is not
+itself a signal of intent — it is one of the most common ways to open *any*
+English question. `chat/curriculum_surface.py::is_curriculum_question`
+commits only when the question parses to three tokens AND both terms are
+vocabulary some served subject actually teaches (`resolve_domain`); an
+`untaught_vocabulary` refusal is explicitly **not** a claim (the composer
+declines the turn entirely, byte-identical to before this composer
+existed). This was a real defect found and fixed this arc (commit-gate
+firing on any `Does …?` text, e.g. "Does the build pass?"); the fix is
+already on `main` and is not part of what remains gated by this flag.
+
+### 2.5 What flipping ON today would mean
+
+Every served answer would carry the `_UNVERIFIED_SHAPE_DISCLOSURE` hedge —
+"(answered from my curriculum, but I haven't yet earned a verified track
+record on questions of this shape)" — because `_license_gate`
+(`chat/curriculum_surface.py`) finds no `Action.SERVE` license for any
+`curriculum_<domain>_<family>` band. The capability would be real and
+sound (same argument bands, same ROBDD engine as §1) but never
+authoritative. This is not unsafe to ship; it is simply not yet *earned*,
+and the standing rule (Shay, 2026-07-24) is that a flag flips on earned
+evidence, not on proximity to it — see
+[[project-deduction-serving-ratified]].
+
+### 2.6 Rollback / blast radius, for parity with §1.6
+
+Same shape as deduction: one line in `core/config.py`
+(`curriculum_serving_enabled: bool = False`, already the default — nothing
+to roll back), checked immediately after the deduction branch in
+`chat/runtime.py:1764`, pure function of text + ratified curriculum, no
+vault/field dependency. Flag-off is byte-identical to pre-arc dispatch by
+construction (the branch is dead code when the flag is False).
+
+---
+
+## 3. What would close §2 (evidence only — not a proposal to act)
+
+Nothing in Tier S closes this gap; it closes only when ratified curriculum
+content grows roughly 25× per served `(subject × family)` — a content
+question for Shay, not an engineering one. See S6's quantification,
+`docs/research/curriculum-volume-quantification-2026-07-24.md`, for the
+per-subject arithmetic.