core/docs/analysis/gsm8k-capability-paradigm-sprint7-lookback-2026-06-17.md

GSM8K Capability Paradigm Sprint 7 — Lookback (2026-06-17)

1. Starting baseline

Metric	Value
correct	14
refused	36
wrong	0

After #817 (Sprint 6: duration_segment_total + survey_rate_earnings). Preserved solved: 0002, 0003, 0008, 0014, 0015, 0018, 0021, 0024, 0025, 0029, 0037, 0038, 0042, 0045.

2. Experience Flywheel output summary

scripts/gsm8k_experience_flywheel.py --limit 50 --out /tmp/gsm8k-experience-sprint7.json

Field	Value
retained_record_count	50
compacted_record_count	50
lift_refused_to_correct	0
promotion_candidates	4 families, all blocked_by_wrong_risk

Top missing primitives: relation_hypothesis (DCS cluster), diagnostic_hold, multiplicative_aggregate, temporal_tariff.

Key signal: No scout refused→correct delta (Sprint 6 already promoted easy lifts). Flywheel ranked joint_sealed_no_resolution cluster (0004, 0005, 0007, 0009, 0010, 0030, 0035, 0048, 0050) plus composition-validation pins for decomposition.

3. Scout/frontier output summary

Regime	correct	refused	wrong
Serving	14	36	0
Sealed (resolve_pooled)	3	39	8

• lift_refused_to_correct: 0
• lift_recommendations: []
• Dominant bottleneck: joint refusal (30/50)
• Sealed-wrong unchanged: 0011, 0018, 0019, 0025, 0026, 0028, 0032, 0047

4. Candidate families ranked

Rank	Family	Cases	Lift signal	Wrong-risk	Sprint 7 verdict
1	joint_sealed_no_resolution + cv-0006	0030	typed R5 round-trip chain	low	Selected (A2i)
2	joint_sealed_no_resolution + cv-0021	0035	typed R4 giveaway-residual	low	Selected (A2j)
3	temporal_tariff:temporal_aggregation	0001, 0017	joint only	medium	Deferred — tariff/overtime
4	multiplicative_aggregate	0006, 0013	joint only	low surface	Deferred — chained age/video shapes
5	relation_hypothesis:DCS	14 joint + 2 wrong	none	blocked (0032, 0047)	Deferred
6	diagnostic_hold:currency_amount	0019, 0028	sealed-wrong	blocked	Deferred

5. Blocked families and why

Family	Blocked because
relation_hypothesis:DCS	0032, 0047 sealed-wrong share recognizer surface
conservative_boundary	0018, 0025 sealed-wrong on served-correct cases
sealed_elimination	0011, 0026 hard elimination
diagnostic_hold:currency_amount	0019, 0028 sealed-wrong

6. Selected paradigm

Dual narrow organs (composition-validation decomposition, not broad family promotion):

1. Gate A2i round_trip_trip_duration — one-way drive ×2 (each way) + comparative activity duration vs total driving; trip-time question (cv-0006 / 0030).
2. Gate A2j giveaway_target_residual — possession − stated remainder − Σ giveaways (including N more than prior recipient); distinct from goal-residual (cv-0021 / 0035).

Rejected wholesale DCS/MA/temporal_tariff promotion: flywheel blocked or joint-only without typed end-to-end chains.

7. Typed chains for target cases

0030 (gold 14): 2 + 2 = 4 driving → 4 × 2.5 = 10 beach → 4 + 10 = 14 trip total.

0035 (gold 4): 20 − 4 = 16 to give → −5 Jane → −5 − 2 James (2 more than Jane) → 4 more needed.

8. Implemented organs

Module	Promotion entry
generate/derivation/round_trip_trip_duration.py	resolve_promotable_round_trip_trip_duration
generate/derivation/giveaway_target_residual.py	resolve_promotable_giveaway_target_residual

Wired in generate/math_candidate_graph.py after Gate A2h, before rate short-circuits.

9. Before / after score

	Before	After
correct	14	16
refused	36	34
wrong	0	0

10. Newly solved IDs

• gsm8k-train-sample-v1-0030
• gsm8k-train-sample-v1-0035

11. Preserved solved IDs

0002, 0003, 0008, 0014, 0015, 0018, 0021, 0024, 0025, 0029, 0037, 0038, 0042, 0045

12. Wrong=0 proof

Ephemeral train_sample: 16 / 34 / 0. Holdout_dev scan: 0 admissions for either new gate.

13. Confuser matrix

Confuser	Result
Round trip without each way	refuse
Fraction/percent duration surface	refuse
Goal-language giveaway (cv-0005)	refuse giveaway organ; goal_residual still serves
Comparative giveaway question (more than Jane)	refuse
Duration segment total (0015)	refuse round-trip organ
0032 percent-time shape	refuse
0047 partition weight shape	refuse

14. Sibling generality proof

• Round-trip sibling: 3h each way, 2× driving at lake → 18h trip
• Giveaway sibling: 30 oranges, 8 + (8+3) given, leave 6 → 5 more

15. Sealed-wrong negative evidence used

Flywheel blocked_by_wrong_risk on DCS/currency families informed refusal to promote broad injectors. Tests refuse 0032/0047 shapes on new gates.

16–21. Confirmations

• report.json untouched (historical pin)
• Sealed-lane artifacts untouched
• No case-id logic
• No hardcoded final answers
• No direct-answer extraction
• Non-goals: broad product_bridge, broad DCS/MA injectors, temporal_tariff organ, resolve_pooled re-wire, report rebaseline, sealed movement

Sprint 8 handoff recommendation

Recommended track: Track A — Capability Sprint 8

Field	Value
Evidence	Flywheel still shows dense joint_sealed_no_resolution cluster; composition-validation pins cv-0007 (0005 fraction temp), cv-0008 (0046 percent partition), and cv-0021-sibling cv-0005 already served — next clean typed chains are affine/fraction (0005, 0046) and temporal_tariff (0001, 0017) after confuser design
Target families	affine_equation / R6 fraction-decrease (0005), percent-partition (0046); secondary: temporal_tariff (0001, 0017)
Blocked families	DCS (0032/0047), currency_amount (0019/0028), sealed_elimination (0011/0026)
Expected movement	+1–2 correct if R6 fraction or percent-partition organ passes wrong=0 adversary
Required modules	generate/derivation/<family>.py, tests/test_math_candidate_graph_<family>_sprint8_lift.py
Non-goals	Experience Flywheel PR-2 until lift_refused_to_correct > 0 or promotion_candidates unblock; no broad DCS until confusers pass

Track B (Flywheel PR-2) deferred: no promotion_candidates with safe lift signal yet. Track C (Diagnostic Hardening) not warranted — two clean organs lifted this sprint.

Validation

git diff --check origin/main...HEAD
pytest tests/test_math_candidate_graph_sprint7_experience_guided_lift.py -q
pytest tests/test_gsm8k_experience_flywheel.py -q
pytest tests/test_gsm8k_sealed_attempt_scout.py -q
pytest tests/test_composition_validation_corpus.py -q
core test --suite smoke -q

Composition-validation snapshot: 12 solve / 10 refuse / 0 wrong (cv-0006, cv-0021 flipped).