core/docs/analysis/gsm8k-capability-paradigm-sprint6-lookback-2026-06-17.md

GSM8K Capability Paradigm Sprint 6 — Lookback (2026-06-17)

1. Starting baseline

Metric	Value
correct	12
refused	38
wrong	0

After #816 (Experience Flywheel PR-1) and #815 (question_bound_product). Preserved solved: 0002, 0003, 0008, 0014, 0018, 0021, 0024, 0025, 0029, 0037, 0038, 0042.

2. Experience Flywheel output summary

scripts/gsm8k_experience_flywheel.py --limit 50 --out /tmp/gsm8k-experience-sprint6.json

Field	Value
retained_record_count	50
compacted_record_count	50
lift_refused_to_correct	0
promotion_candidates (all)	4 families, all blocked_by_wrong_risk

Top missing primitives: relation_hypothesis (15), diagnostic_hold (7), multiplicative_aggregate (3), temporal_tariff (2).

Key signal: No scout refused→correct delta remained (Sprint 5 already promoted 0003/0021). Flywheel ranked clusters by joint-refusal density + wrong-risk absence, not lift delta.

3. Scout/frontier output summary

Regime	correct	refused	wrong
Serving	12	38	0
Sealed (resolve_pooled)	3	39	8

• lift_refused_to_correct: 0
• lift_recommendations: []
• Dominant bottleneck: recognizer matched → no injection (27/50)
• Sealed-wrong elimination: 0011, 0018, 0019, 0025, 0026, 0028, 0032, 0047

4. Candidate families ranked

Rank	Family	Cases	Lift signal	Wrong-risk	Sprint 6 verdict
1	multiplicative_aggregate:multiplicative_aggregation	0006, 0013, 0045	joint only	none on surface	Decomposed — 0045 solvable as survey organ; 0006/0013 need other primitives
2	temporal_tariff:temporal_aggregation	0001, 0017	joint only	low	Deferred — tariff/overtime shapes
3	relation_hypothesis:discrete_count_statement	13 joint + 2 wrong	none	blocked (0032, 0047)	Deferred — confuser-gated
—	composition_validation R5 pin	0015 (cv-0022)	typed chain documented	low	Selected (A2g)
—	Survey earnings sub-shape of MA cluster	0045	typed chain	low	Selected (A2h)

5. Blocked families and why

Family	Blocked because
relation_hypothesis:DCS	0032, 0047 sealed-wrong share recognizer surface
conservative_boundary	0018, 0025 sealed-wrong on served-correct cases
sealed_elimination	0011, 0026 hard elimination
diagnostic_hold:currency_amount	0019, 0028 sealed-wrong

6. Selected paradigm

Dual narrow organs (experience-guided decomposition, not broad MA/DCS promotion):

1. Gate A2g duration_segment_total — R5 comparative middle-leg + fixed legs, total-time question (cv-0022 / 0015).
2. Gate A2h survey_rate_earnings — (surveys_a + surveys_b) × questions_per_survey × $/question with money+earn question binding (0045 MA sub-shape).

Rejected wholesale multiplicative_aggregate promotion: subagent chain analysis showed 0006/0013 not end-to-end MA; 0045 only the survey slice is sound.

7. Typed chains for target cases

0015 (gold 38): 10 + (10×2) + 8 — subway leg, train leg = twice subway, bike leg; question binds total + time.

0045 (gold 14): (3+4) × 10 × 0.2 — Mon/Tue survey counts, questions/survey, rate/question; question binds money + earn.

8. Implemented organs

Module	Promotion entry
generate/derivation/duration_segment_total.py	resolve_promotable_duration_segment_total
generate/derivation/survey_rate_earnings.py	resolve_promotable_survey_rate_earnings

Wired in generate/math_candidate_graph.py after Gate A2f, before rate short-circuits.

9. Before / after score

	Before	After
correct	12	14
refused	38	36
wrong	0	0

10. Newly solved IDs

• gsm8k-train-sample-v1-0015
• gsm8k-train-sample-v1-0045

11. Preserved solved IDs

0002, 0003, 0008, 0014, 0018, 0021, 0024, 0025, 0029, 0037, 0038, 0042

12. Wrong=0 proof

Ephemeral train_sample: 14 / 36 / 0. Holdout_dev scan: 0 admissions for either new promotion bridge.

13. Confuser matrix

Confuser	Result
Duration without total-time question	refuse
Survey without rate clause	refuse
Comparative survey count (twice Monday)	refuse
Fraction duration surface	refuse
0047 partition/remaining weight	refuse
0032 percent-less time	refuse

14. Sibling generality proof

• Duration sibling: bus 5h + ferry 2×5h + walk 3h → 18
• Survey sibling: (2+5)×8×$0.50 → 28

15. Sealed-wrong negative evidence used

Flywheel blocked_by_wrong_risk on DCS/MA families informed refusal to promote broad injectors. Tests explicitly refuse 0047/0032 shapes on new gates.

16–21. Confirmations

• report.json untouched (historical pin)
• Sealed-lane artifacts untouched
• No case-id logic
• No hardcoded final answers
• No direct-answer extraction
• Non-goals: broad product_bridge, broad DCS/MA injectors, resolve_pooled re-wire, report rebaseline, sealed movement, 0030 round-trip/beach organ (deferred), DCS family until confusers pass

Validation

git diff --check origin/main...HEAD
pytest tests/test_math_candidate_graph_sprint6_experience_guided_lift.py -q
pytest tests/test_gsm8k_experience_flywheel.py -q
pytest tests/test_gsm8k_sealed_attempt_scout.py -q
pytest tests/test_composition_validation_corpus.py -q
core test --suite smoke -q

Composition-validation snapshot: 10 solve / 12 refuse / 0 wrong (cv-0022 flipped).