core/docs/analysis/gsm8k-capability-paradigm-sprint11-lookback-2026-06-17.md

GSM8K Capability Paradigm Sprint 11 — Lookback (2026-06-17)

1. Starting baseline

Metric	Value
correct	23
refused	27
wrong	0

After #823 (Sprint 10 dual-organ lift). Prerequisite satisfied.

2. Experience Flywheel output summary

scripts/gsm8k_experience_flywheel.py --limit 50 --out /tmp/gsm8k-experience-sprint11.json

Field	Value
retained_record_count	50
lift_refused_to_correct	0
scout serving	23 / 27 / 0

Top signals:

• multiplicative_aggregate:multiplicative_aggregation — 0013 sole member; not_promotable, 0 sealed-wrong on surface tag.
• already_served — 23 cases; no flywheel promotion path.
• Blocked: DCS/relation_hypothesis (0032, 0047 neighbors), sealed_elimination (0011, 0026), currency (0019, 0028).

0013 remains the cleanest calendar/piecewise candidate; no sealed-wrong neighbor on the MA surface tag.

3. Scout/frontier/microscope output summary

Regime	correct	refused	wrong
Serving	23	27	0
Sealed (resolve_pooled)	3	39	8

• lift_refused_to_correct: 0
• Dominant bottleneck: joint refusal (21/50)
• Sealed-wrong unchanged: 0011, 0018, 0019, 0025, 0026, 0028, 0032, 0047

Microscope: 0013 tagged multiplicative_aggregate / temporal_aggregation; adjacent solved temporal cases 0001, 0015, 0017 use distinct tariff/duration surfaces.

4. Candidate families ranked

Rank	Family	Cases	Lift	Wrong-risk	Verdict
1	calendar_grounded_piecewise_daily_hours_total	0013	+1	low–medium	Selected (A2q)
2	multiplicative_aggregate wholesale	0013	+1?	high (0025, 0047)	Rejected
3	Scout singletons (0004/0007)	—	+1 each	high neighbors	Deferred
—	DCS / currency / sealed_elimination	—	—	blocked	Deferred

5. ClusterContract

ClusterContract:
  family_id: calendar_grounded_piecewise_daily_hours_total
  proposed_organs:
    - piecewise_daily_hours_total (Gate A2q)
    - calendar_grounding (civil_month_day_count_table substrate)
  included_cases:
    - gsm8k-train-sample-v1-0013
  explicitly_excluded_cases:
    - gsm8k-train-sample-v1-0001  # temporal tariff overtime
    - gsm8k-train-sample-v1-0014  # rate conversion
    - gsm8k-train-sample-v1-0015  # duration segment total
    - gsm8k-train-sample-v1-0017  # bundle overflow tariff
    - gsm8k-train-sample-v1-0025  # MA sealed-wrong
    - gsm8k-train-sample-v1-0047  # DCS/divisive sealed-wrong
    - February / odd-day-month halfway confusers
  positive_anchors:
    - "N one-hour {content} each day" → N hours/day
    - "halfway through {NamedMonth}"
    - "doubled the number of video hours" + "remaining days"
    - "total … hours … end of the month"
  negative_anchors:
    - money/tariff ($, overtime, rent)
    - vague month ("about a month", "several weeks")
    - February without leap policy
    - odd-day-month halfway (31-day months)
    - asks daily rate / first period only
    - MA/DCS packing surfaces
  actor_binding_rule: leading subject before comma must appear in upload opener
  target_binding_rule: question must ask total hours at end of month (what/how + total + hours + month)
  unit_binding_rule: answer unit is hours; daily rate derived from one-hour event count
  quantity_obligations:
    - text-grounded daily event count (10)
    - table-grounded month span (June→30, provenance calendar_table)
    - comparative cues doubled, halfway, remaining
  allowed_external_grounding:
    - civil_month_day_count_table (fixed non-leap civil year)
  grounding_provenance: calendar_table:{month_name}
  blocked_sibling_families:
    - temporal_tariff
    - duration_segment_total
    - multiplicative_aggregate wholesale
    - rate_conversion
  composition_validation_pins: none changed (cv-0013 remains permanent refuse)
  required_confusers:
    - February, January-halfway, vague month, no month, asks rate, first-period-only
    - 0001/0017 tariff, 0015 duration, 0014 rate, 0025 MA
  serving_admission_rule: resolve_promotable_piecewise_daily_hours_total() after self-verification
  implementation_allowed: true
  reason: Typed chain + explicit table provenance + confuser matrix clears wrong-risk neighbors; only 0013 in train_sample — sibling proven via synthetic September case.

6. Calendar grounding policy decision

Ratified for serving with narrow constraints:

• Fixed CIVIL_MONTH_DAY_COUNT table (12 months, non-leap).
• February serving-blocked (leap ambiguity).
• Halfway split only on even day-count months (30-day civil months).
• Month operand provenance calendar_table:{month}; month name must appear in text.
• Not reconstruction-over-storage: table is a deterministic construction boundary, not vault memory.
• Not hidden normalization: no hot-path repair; table consulted only at organ admission.
• Not answer memorization: arithmetic recomputed from text rate + table span + comparative cues.

7. Blocked families and why

Family	Blocked because
multiplicative_aggregate wholesale	0025/0047 sealed-wrong; 0013 is piecewise not MA
DCS / currency / sealed_elimination	unchanged blocked set
February calendar	leap-year policy not ratified
31-day halfway split	odd half-days ambiguous under table policy
Scout singletons 0004/0007	0026/0047 sealed-wrong neighbors

8. Research gate decision

Proceed with ClusterContract-backed Gate A2q. Calendar table grounding is doctrinally safe under explicit provenance and narrow admission. State A (25+) not reachable with single train_sample member; fallback 24/26/0 accepted.

9. Selected paradigm

ClusterContract organ bundle:

1. generate/derivation/calendar_grounding.py — civil month table + provenance
2. generate/derivation/piecewise_daily_hours_total.py — Gate A2q piecewise organ

Wired in generate/math_candidate_graph.py after Gate A2p.

10. Typed chains for target cases

0013 (gold 450):

• daily_hours = 10 (10 one-hour videos/day)
• month_days = 30 (calendar_table:june)
• half_days = 15 (halfway through June)
• period1 = 10 × 15 = 150
• period2 = (10 × 2) × 15 = 300 (doubled remaining days)
• total = 450

11. Implemented organ(s)

Module	Promotion entry
generate/derivation/calendar_grounding.py	resolve_month_grounding()
generate/derivation/piecewise_daily_hours_total.py	resolve_promotable_piecewise_daily_hours_total()

12. Before/after score

Metric	Before	After	Δ
correct	23	24	+1
refused	27	26	−1
wrong	0	0	0

Fallback achieved: 24/26/0 + ratified ClusterContract. State A (25+) not reached — no second train_sample member in contract.

13. Newly solved IDs

0013

14. Preserved solved IDs

0001, 0002, 0003, 0005, 0006, 0008, 0009, 0010, 0014, 0015, 0017, 0018, 0021, 0024, 0025, 0029, 0030, 0035, 0037, 0038, 0042, 0045, 0046

15. Wrong=0 proof

• Full train_sample replay: 24 / 26 / 0
• tests/test_math_candidate_graph_sprint11_cluster_contract_lift.py
• Holdout_dev: wrong=0
• Smoke suite: 108 passed
• Regression lane: 307+ passed

16. Confuser matrix

Confuser	Result
February halfway	refuse
January odd-month halfway	refuse
No named month	refuse
"about a month"	refuse
Asks daily rate	refuse
First period only	refuse
0001 overtime tariff	refuse
0017 bundle tariff	refuse
0015 duration segment	refuse
0014 rate conversion	refuse
0025 MA shape	refuse

17. Sibling generality proof

Synthetic September sibling: 6 one-hour episodes/day, halfway through September, doubled remaining → 6×15 + 12×15 = 270 (tested).

18. Sealed-wrong negative evidence used

• Rejected wholesale MA: 0025, 0047 confuser shapes refuse A2q
• Temporal tariff 0001/0017: $/overtime/rent blockers
• Duration 0015: no piecewise month surface

19. Composition-validation pin changes

None.

20. report.json untouched

Yes.

21. sealed artifacts untouched

Yes.

22. no case-id logic

Yes.

23. no hardcoded answer

Yes.

24. no direct-answer shortcut

Yes.

25. whether this enables bigger bundled lifts

Yes, substrate-first. The ClusterContract + calendar_grounding module is reusable for future organs that share:

• named-month whole-span grounding
• explicit calendar_table provenance
• shared confuser matrix (February, odd-month halfway, vague spans)

Next bundled lift could add a second organ under the same contract (e.g. uniform daily rate without doubling) once practice lane shows sibling coverage.

26. Sprint 12 recommendation

1. Primary: Scout-decomposed singleton with lowest sealed-wrong adjacency — re-audit 0004 only if nested-fraction confuser matrix against 0026 is ratified; otherwise 0007 only after 0047 divisive confuser matrix.
2. ClusterContract extension: Add second piecewise organ (uniform month total without rate change) under same calendar contract if practice/holdout cases appear — do not broaden to generic calendar parser.
3. Blocked: DCS 0032/0047, currency 0019/0028, sealed_elimination 0011/0026, wholesale MA.
4. Experience Flywheel: Continue compaction; no serving promotion from flywheel until lift_refused_to_correct > 0 with sealed-wrong clearance.
5. Target: 25+/25-/0 requires either a second train_sample case under an existing contract or a verified singleton mini-family with sibling tests.