Phase B of the curriculum-license-loop arc. Stacked on the ADR-0264 branch.
The invariant: conservative_floor is a one-sided Wilson lower bound and Wilson
assumes INDEPENDENT trials. CORE's pipeline is deterministic, so replaying an
identical case is not a second trial -- it is the same trial with a guaranteed
outcome. A ledger's `committed` count is an upper bound on its evidence; the
defensible figure is its distinct-decision count.
Phase B was scoped as a precaution for a curriculum producer that does not
exist yet. Running the instrument against the producers that DO exist found it
already violated:
21 of the 25 ratified deduction_serve bands do not clear theta_SERVE=0.99 on
distinct evidence. Three inflate 28 distinct cases into 720 committed
(honest floor 0.8084 vs claimed 0.9909). deduction_serving_enabled was
ratified ON 2026-07-24 and is live.
The estimation producer (ADR-0175) is clean -- 660 committed, 660 distinct,
zero repeats, evidently chosen just above the 657 a perfect record needs. So
this is a regression from a standard already established in the repo, not an
architectural gap. `claimed` is identical for all 25 deduction bands because
every band commits 720 with a perfect record: the gate sees 25
indistinguishable passes while honest floors span 0.8084..0.9909.
NOT REPAIRED. The ledger is SHA-sealed, ratified, and gating a live flag, so
re-sealing it is Shay's ratification, not a test's. wrong=0 still holds -- no
band answered anything incorrectly. What is not established is reliability at
the volume claimed. Measured, pinned in both directions, written down.
Added:
- core/reliability_gate/evidence.py -- pure measurement, imported by no serving
path. volume_for_theta() DERIVES 657 from conservative_floor rather than
restating it, so a WILSON_Z change cannot leave a stale literal behind.
- tests/test_volume_honesty.py -- 13 tests. AUDIT_SOURCES is checked against
CAPABILITY_LEDGERS, so a new licensed capability cannot ship unaudited; the
curriculum entry is a declared None that fails the moment its ledger exists.
That is Phase C's forcing function against repeating the pattern.
- docs/research/distinct-evidence-audit-2026-07-25.md -- full audit + the open
outcome-mix ruling for Shay.
- ADR-0264 R9 amended with the measured exposure.
Decision key is case TEXT deliberately: a tighter key (normalized atom) would
collapse spelling variants and report MORE inflation, so text-identity
under-reports and every number is a floor on the real gap.
Outcome mix is deliberately NOT pinned. ClassTally has no verdict axis, the
deduction producer already balances 240/240/240 by construction, and imposing
a per-verdict-class floor would retroactively fail all 25 bands on a criterion
no ADR has ratified (smallest per-band class count is 120). Recorded for a
ruling with numbers instead.
[Verification]: uv sync --locked on canonical CPython 3.12.13; in-worktree
smoke 569 passed (556 baseline + 13), deductive 285 passed. Registered in the
`smoke` curated suite -- not left to `full`, which gates nothing. Mutation-
checked: doubling CASES_PER_BAND -> 2 failed; reporting committed as distinct
-> 4 failed; gating on `claimed` instead of `honest` -> 3 failed; tree restores
to 13 passed.
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