core/docs/analysis/gsm8k-capability-paradigm-sprint8-lookback-2026-06-17.md

GSM8K Capability Paradigm Sprint 8 — Lookback (2026-06-17)

1. Starting baseline

Metric	Value
correct	16
refused	34
wrong	0

After #818 (Sprint 7: round_trip_trip_duration + giveaway_target_residual). Preserved solved: 0002, 0003, 0008, 0014, 0015, 0018, 0021, 0024, 0025, 0029, 0030, 0035, 0037, 0038, 0042, 0045.

2. Experience Flywheel output summary

scripts/gsm8k_experience_flywheel.py --limit 50 --out /tmp/gsm8k-experience-sprint8.json

Field	Value
retained_record_count	50
lift_refused_to_correct	0
promotion_candidates	4 families, all blocked_by_wrong_risk

Top missing primitives: relation_hypothesis (DCS), multiplicative_aggregate, temporal_tariff, diagnostic_hold.

Key signal: No scout refused→correct delta (prior sprints already promoted clean lifts). Composition-validation pins cv-0007 (0005 fraction-decrease) and cv-0008 (0046 percent-partition) provided typed R6 chains with low wrong-risk — aligned with Sprint 7 handoff.

3. Scout/frontier output summary

Regime	correct	refused	wrong
Serving	16	34	0
Sealed (resolve_pooled)	3	39	8

• lift_refused_to_correct: 0
• Dominant bottleneck: joint refusal (28/50)
• Sealed-wrong unchanged: 0011, 0018, 0019, 0025, 0026, 0028, 0032, 0047

Microscope slices: affine_equation_fraction_target (0005), affine_equation / percent partition (0046).

4. Candidate families ranked

Rank	Family	Cases	Lift signal	Wrong-risk	Sprint 8 verdict
1	R6 fraction-decrease (cv-0007)	0005	typed base × (1−N/M)	low	Selected (A2k)
2	R6 percent-partition (cv-0008)	0046	typed half-split + dual %	low	Selected (A2l)
3	temporal_tariff:temporal_aggregation	0001, 0017	joint only	medium	Deferred — confuser design
4	affine_equation_fraction_delta	0010	joint only	medium	Deferred — 1/4 more than affine
5	relation_hypothesis:DCS	14 joint + 2 wrong	none	blocked (0032, 0047)	Deferred
6	diagnostic_hold:currency_amount	0019, 0028	sealed-wrong	blocked	Deferred

5. Blocked families and why

Family	Blocked because
relation_hypothesis:DCS	0032, 0047 sealed-wrong share discrete-count / partition surface
conservative_boundary	0018, 0025 sealed-wrong on served-correct cases
sealed_elimination	0011, 0026 hard elimination
diagnostic_hold:currency_amount	0019, 0028 sealed-wrong

6. Selected paradigm

Dual narrow R6 organs (composition-validation decomposition, not generic affine parser):

1. Gate A2k fraction_decrease — forecast decrease to N/M of + explicit current base + question asks decrease by delta (cv-0007 / 0005).
2. Gate A2l percent_partition — total population + equal half / other half split + two N% of the <group> clauses + aggregate ownership question (cv-0008 / 0046).

Rejected: broad product_bridge, DCS injector, generic affine equation parser, temporal_tariff wholesale promotion.

7. Typed chains for target cases

0005 (gold 21): 84 × (1 − 3/4) = 84 × 1/4 = 21 degrees decrease.

0046 (gold 15): 100 × 0.5 = 50 per group → 50 × 0.20 = 10 girl dog owners → + 50 × 0.10 = 5 boy dog owners → 15 total.

8. Implemented organs

Module	Promotion entry
generate/derivation/fraction_decrease.py	resolve_promotable_fraction_decrease
generate/derivation/percent_partition.py	resolve_promotable_percent_partition

Wired in generate/math_candidate_graph.py after Gate A2j, before rate short-circuits.

9. Before/after score

Metric	Before	After	Δ
correct	16	18	+2
refused	34	32	−2
wrong	0	0	0

State A met: 18+/32-/0.

10. Newly solved IDs

0005, 0046

11. Preserved solved IDs

0002, 0003, 0008, 0014, 0015, 0018, 0021, 0024, 0025, 0029, 0030, 0035, 0037, 0038, 0042, 0045

12. Wrong=0 proof

• Full train_sample replay: 18 correct / 32 refused / 0 wrong
• tests/test_math_candidate_graph_sprint8_r6_affine_lift.py::TestTrainSampleScore
• Composition-validation firewall: 14 solve / 8 refuse / 0 wrong
• Holdout_dev: 0 new organ admissions
• Smoke suite: 108 passed

13. Confuser matrix

Confuser	Organ	Result
0010 affine 1/4 more than	A2k	refused
Final-value question (not decrease-by)	A2k	refused
Unequal 60/40 split (not half/half)	A2l	refused
0032 percent time-decrease	A2l	refused
0047 DCS equal-pack	A2l	refused
Goal-residual (cv-0005)	A2k	refused (goal_residual serves)

14. Sibling generality proof

Sibling	Gold	Organ
Cedar peak 2/3 decrease, 60° base	20	A2k
Club 80 members, 25%/15% half-split	16	A2l

15. Sealed-wrong negative evidence used

• 0032 percent-decrease shape → A2l hazard refusal (not sequential % chain)
• 0047 equal-pack DCS → A2l hazard refusal (no half-split / no % of group)
• DCS flywheel blocked_by_wrong_risk → no broad partition injector

16. Composition-validation pin changes

Pin	Before	After
cv-0007 (0005)	refuse	solve (21)
cv-0008 (0046)	refuse	solve (15)

Aggregate snapshot: 12/10/0 → 14/8/0

17. report.json untouched

evals/gsm8k_math/train_sample/v1/report.json not modified.

18. Sealed artifacts untouched

No changes to sealed practice lanes, holdout, or resolve_pooled wiring.

19. No case-id logic

Promotion is family-typed only; no case_id conditionals in serving path.

20. No hardcoded answer

Answers derived from grounded arithmetic chains; no answer literals.

21. No direct-answer shortcut

No answer_numeric extraction or final-answer parsing.

22. Sprint 9 recommendation

Track A — Capability Sprint 9 (continue capability paradigm)

Evidence	Detail
Flywheel	lift_refused_to_correct == 0; dense joint_sealed_no_resolution cluster remains
Next targets	temporal_tariff (0001, 0017) after confuser matrix; affine_equation_fraction_delta (0010)
Secondary	multiplicative_aggregate joint cluster (0006, 0013) — only with hard verifier
Blocked	DCS (0032/0047), currency_amount (0019/0028), sealed_elimination (0011/0026)
Expected lift	+1–2 correct if temporal_tariff organ passes adversarial review
Modules	generate/derivation/temporal_tariff.py (proposed)
Non-goals	Flywheel PR-2, broad product_bridge, DCS injector, report.json rebaseline

Track B (Experience Flywheel PR-2) and Track C (Diagnostic Hardening) deferred — flywheel still shows promotable typed chains in joint-refusal cluster, not exclusively wrong-risk blockage.