core/docs/eval_methodology.md
Shay 1e01f7794e feat(evals): Phase 0 — benchmark methodology lock-in and eval framework
Implement the eval infrastructure defined in ADR-0016 before building new
eval lanes. This establishes the discipline that governs the entire
capability roadmap.

- Generic eval framework (evals/framework.py): lane discovery, versioned
  scoring, result persistence
- Cognition lane retrofitted into new convention: 45 cases split into
  stratified dev (13) / public v1 (13) / holdout (19) sets with contract,
  runner, and recorded results
- Generalized `core eval <lane>` CLI: dynamic lane discovery, --list,
  --version, --split, --save, --json flags
- Holdout runner scaffold: plaintext fallback, encryption interface ready
- Baseline runner scaffold: pluggable frontier model interface
- Fix: CognitiveTurnPipeline.run() crashed on turn_log[-1] when the
  unknown-domain gate returned a stub without appending to turn_log
- ADR-0016, eval_methodology.md, PROGRESS.md, capability gates session log

Phase 0 exit audit found two methodology issues:
1. Pipeline turn_log crash (fixed here)
2. Versor drift in multi-turn sessions (pre-existing, under investigation)
2026-05-15 22:36:53 -07:00

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Markdown

# Eval Methodology — Benchmark Discipline Contract
**Status:** Accepted (ADR-0016)
**Last updated:** 2026-05-15
This document defines the five rules that govern every eval lane in the CORE
capability roadmap. No exceptions per phase. A lane that does not satisfy these
rules is exploration, not a gate.
---
## Rule 1 — Three-set split per lane
Every lane maintains three disjoint corpora:
- **Dev set.** Freely visible during development. Used to iterate.
- **Public test set.** Visible, but tuning against it is forbidden. Scored at
version-cut time only. Drift in dev-vs-public scores is a red flag for
overfitting.
- **Private holdout.** Sealed. Never read by Claude, never committed in
plaintext, only scored by a clean-room runner at release events. Stored
encrypted in `evals/holdouts/` with key held by the human reviewer.
If a lane has only a dev set, it does not count as a gate. It is exploration.
## Rule 2 — Versioned difficulty escalation
Each lane has versions: `v1`, `v2`, `v3`, ... with monotonically harder
distributions. Passing a version is not a terminal state; it is a checkpoint
that unlocks generating the next version.
- **v1** — baseline competence demonstration. The construction is shown clearly.
- **v2** — distributional shift: longer chains, deeper nesting, rarer
vocabulary, paraphrased surface forms.
- **v3** — adversarial: items generated specifically by inspecting model
failures on v2.
- **v4+** — out-of-distribution: items drawn from domains, registers, or
constructions not present at training time.
Score is always reported as a tuple `(v1_score, v2_score, v3_score, ...)`,
never collapsed to a single number.
## Rule 3 — Adversarial regeneration on pass
When a model passes a version (>=95% on the public test set with >=90% on
private holdout), the next version is generated by adversarial process:
- Human review finds construction families the model handled accidentally
rather than structurally.
- A separate generator produces items targeting the weakest decile of the
previous version.
- The new version is reviewed for legitimacy — no impossible items, no
ambiguous items, no items that depend on world knowledge the system was
never given.
## Rule 4 — Frontier baseline tracking
For each lane, a baseline score is computed for at least one frontier
transformer-based model on the same public test set. Baselines are:
- Re-scored every time a version is cut.
- Published alongside CORE's score.
- Never tuned, never prompt-engineered to maximize — the prompt is the eval
task as written.
## Rule 5 — Honest reporting
- Failures are reported with the same prominence as passes.
- Confidence intervals on every score (bootstrapped over the test set).
- Per-construction breakdowns published — never a single aggregate hiding
structural failures.
- Regressions across versions are surfaced, never silently dropped.
- "Did not test" is a valid result; "tested and failed" is preferred over
"did not test."
If a number cannot be reported honestly under these rules, the lane is not
ready. Do not ship the lane.
---
## Eval lane directory contract
Every eval lane lives in `evals/<lane_name>/` with this layout:
```
evals/<lane_name>/
contract.md # what the lane measures, scoring rubric, pass thresholds
dev/ # dev set, freely visible
public/v1/ # public test set, version 1
public/v2/ # ...
holdouts/ # encrypted, sealed
runner.py # deterministic scorer
baselines/ # frontier model scores per version
results/ # CORE scores per version per release
```
A lane without a `contract.md` does not run.
---
## References
- ADR-0016: Capability Roadmap
- `docs/capability_roadmap.md`: Full phased plan