The final AGI-spine step (A INSTRUMENT → B WIRE → C DEEPEN → D CLOSE → E ESTIMATION).
The engine may now SERVE a DISCLOSED estimate for a query it would otherwise refuse —
but only for a predicate-class that has measured itself reliable, and never as fact.
This executes the ADR-0206 §5 cognition-path widening: the bridge's LICENSE node
(reliability_gate.license_for), previously "built — not yet called from serving", is now
called. govern_response returns APPROXIMATE iff a genuine licensed Action.SERVE
LicenseDecision is passed (STRICT for every other input — so every existing serving call
site is byte-identical); shape_surface DISCLOSES the estimate as "[approximate] …".
Mechanism:
- generate/determine/estimate.py — a BLIND converse-guesser: told p(a,b), asked p(b,a),
it commits the converse. It never reads the pack's symmetry metadata; whether the guess
is right is MEASURED, not assumed.
- evals/determination_estimation/ — the gold lane: run_practice (sealed, ADR-0199) folds
the converse-guesser over symmetric (sibling_of) vs directed (parent_of) cases, scored
against the pack's graph.edge.symmetric truth (gold independent of the solver). The gate
DISCRIMINATES: sibling_of earns SERVE (660 correct → Wilson floor 0.990046 ≥ θ_SERVE),
parent_of does not (660 wrong → 0.0). The license is earned by VOLUME — 657 perfect
commits is the exact θ_SERVE=0.99 threshold (656 is below).
- generate/determine/data/estimation_ledger.json — the ratified committed ledger,
hash-verified on load (a hand-edited ledger raises RatifiedLedgerError); it IS the
deterministic sealed-practice output (a GSM8K-style --check test pins this).
- chat/runtime.py — when a converse query is refused and the class holds a SERVE license,
the disclosed estimate is surfaced through the bridge (gated by config.estimation_enabled,
default OFF; only meaningful with accrue_realized_knowledge).
Invariants:
- wrong=0 by construction — an estimate is ALWAYS disclosed ([approximate]), never a silent
commit (UNVERIFIED_POSSIBLE is never in APPROXIMATE's admissible set), and only a genuine
ratified license widens (a forged {"licensed":True} dict / a PROPOSE license / an
unlicensed SERVE all stay STRICT). Defense-in-depth: type-gate ∧ admissible-set ∧
hardcoded disclosed state.
- never self-authored — ceilings stay at safe defaults (θ_SERVE=0.99); the engine cannot
raise its own bar. The ledger is sealed practice, hash-verified.
- session/serving only — no corpus/pack/identity/proposal/vault mutation; the HITL teaching
path is untouched. Deterministic; no clock/random.
- byte-identical for every non-E turn (the 2643 govern_response call passes no license).
Out of scope (separate ADR-0206 §5 PRs): the math-serving seam (select_self_verified,
touches the sealed metric), SITUATE (stakes), and the live FEED-BACK loop.
Verified green: smoke (90), architectural invariants (56), response_governance (321,
incl. the new license-gated widening test), the determination-estimation lane (12), and
the B/D/determine regression net. Four-lens adversarial review (disclosure/wrong=0,
calibration integrity, byte-identity, boundary/determinism): all held. Design:
docs/analysis/E-estimation-design-2026-06-06.md.
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