core/docs
Shay 13a4b05d62 test(reliability): volume-honesty invariant + distinct-evidence audit
Phase B of the curriculum-license-loop arc. Stacked on the ADR-0264 branch.

The invariant: conservative_floor is a one-sided Wilson lower bound and Wilson
assumes INDEPENDENT trials. CORE's pipeline is deterministic, so replaying an
identical case is not a second trial -- it is the same trial with a guaranteed
outcome. A ledger's `committed` count is an upper bound on its evidence; the
defensible figure is its distinct-decision count.

Phase B was scoped as a precaution for a curriculum producer that does not
exist yet. Running the instrument against the producers that DO exist found it
already violated:

  21 of the 25 ratified deduction_serve bands do not clear theta_SERVE=0.99 on
  distinct evidence. Three inflate 28 distinct cases into 720 committed
  (honest floor 0.8084 vs claimed 0.9909). deduction_serving_enabled was
  ratified ON 2026-07-24 and is live.

The estimation producer (ADR-0175) is clean -- 660 committed, 660 distinct,
zero repeats, evidently chosen just above the 657 a perfect record needs. So
this is a regression from a standard already established in the repo, not an
architectural gap. `claimed` is identical for all 25 deduction bands because
every band commits 720 with a perfect record: the gate sees 25
indistinguishable passes while honest floors span 0.8084..0.9909.

NOT REPAIRED. The ledger is SHA-sealed, ratified, and gating a live flag, so
re-sealing it is Shay's ratification, not a test's. wrong=0 still holds -- no
band answered anything incorrectly. What is not established is reliability at
the volume claimed. Measured, pinned in both directions, written down.

Added:
- core/reliability_gate/evidence.py -- pure measurement, imported by no serving
  path. volume_for_theta() DERIVES 657 from conservative_floor rather than
  restating it, so a WILSON_Z change cannot leave a stale literal behind.
- tests/test_volume_honesty.py -- 13 tests. AUDIT_SOURCES is checked against
  CAPABILITY_LEDGERS, so a new licensed capability cannot ship unaudited; the
  curriculum entry is a declared None that fails the moment its ledger exists.
  That is Phase C's forcing function against repeating the pattern.
- docs/research/distinct-evidence-audit-2026-07-25.md -- full audit + the open
  outcome-mix ruling for Shay.
- ADR-0264 R9 amended with the measured exposure.

Decision key is case TEXT deliberately: a tighter key (normalized atom) would
collapse spelling variants and report MORE inflation, so text-identity
under-reports and every number is a floor on the real gap.

Outcome mix is deliberately NOT pinned. ClassTally has no verdict axis, the
deduction producer already balances 240/240/240 by construction, and imposing
a per-verdict-class floor would retroactively fail all 25 bands on a criterion
no ADR has ratified (smallest per-band class count is 120). Recorded for a
ruling with numbers instead.

[Verification]: uv sync --locked on canonical CPython 3.12.13; in-worktree
smoke 569 passed (556 baseline + 13), deductive 285 passed. Registered in the
`smoke` curated suite -- not left to `full`, which gates nothing. Mutation-
checked: doubling CASES_PER_BAND -> 2 failed; reporting committed as distinct
-> 4 failed; gating on `claimed` instead of `honest` -> 3 failed; tree restores
to 13 passed.
2026-07-25 16:03:10 -07:00
..
adr test(reliability): volume-honesty invariant + distinct-evidence audit 2026-07-25 16:03:10 -07:00
agents/grok
analysis feat(coherence): grounded-open hedge arm — serve pack surfaces honestly hedged instead of over-refusing (ADR-0254) 2026-07-23 01:27:17 -07:00
architecture
audit docs: accept ADR-0246, 0247, 0248 and update packet 2026-07-18 11:18:51 -07:00
benchmarks
briefs docs(governance): weekly-audit rulings T1/T7/T8/T9 — INV-32/33/34 registration, ADR-0243 fold, residual escalation, path sweep, prune ledger 2026-07-22 19:18:59 -07:00
curriculum
decisions
evals
examples
handoff docs(arc): curriculum-license-loop plan of record + tier division of work 2026-07-25 15:09:09 -07:00
handoffs docs(paradigm): retire six competing unratified problem-solving paradigms under ADR-0252 2026-07-19 14:46:47 -07:00
implementation docs(paradigm): retire six competing unratified problem-solving paradigms under ADR-0252 2026-07-19 14:46:47 -07:00
issues fix(tests): session-scoped engine-state isolation baseline — close module-scope escape to the live life-store 2026-07-22 20:32:06 -07:00
lab
outreach
paradigm-archive docs(paradigm): retire six competing unratified problem-solving paradigms under ADR-0252 2026-07-19 14:46:47 -07:00
plans docs(arc): curriculum-license-loop plan of record + tier division of work 2026-07-25 15:09:09 -07:00
research test(reliability): volume-honesty invariant + distinct-evidence audit 2026-07-25 16:03:10 -07:00
sessions
specs feat(provenance,teaching): close the lateral gaps the assessment actually found 2026-07-25 04:51:15 +00:00
workbench docs(governance): weekly-audit rulings T1/T7/T8/T9 — INV-32/33/34 registration, ADR-0243 fold, residual escalation, path sweep, prune ledger 2026-07-22 19:18:59 -07:00
zig
3lang-depth-pr-plan.md
admissibility-exemplars.md
ci-optimization.md
core-rd-base-prompts.md
ethics_packs.md
EVAL_AUDIT_2026-05-20.md
eval_methodology.md
frontier_baselines.md
gaps.md
handoff_template.md
hitl-backpressure.md
holdout_recipients.txt
identity_packs.md
master-plan-post-substrate-audit.md
memo.html
model_dependency_size_tally.md
pack_inventory_2026-05-21.md
position_paper.md
PROGRESS.md
README.md
recognizer-registry.md
refusal-taxonomy.md
reviewers.yaml
RUST.md
safety_packs.md
sponsors.md
teaching_order.md
test-debt-quarantine.md
testing-lanes.md
Whitepaper.md
Yellowpaper.md

CORE Documentation Index

This is the central index for all documentation in the CORE project.

Canonical Root Documents

Directories

Architecture & Design

  • adr/ - Architecture Decision Records (ADRs). The canonical history of all ratified engineering choices.
  • architecture/ - High-level architectural documents (e.g., pipelines, schemas).
  • analysis/ - Deep dives and master plans for structural changes.
  • specs/ - Detailed technical specifications and invariants.

Planning & Progress

  • plans/ - Capability roadmaps and implementation plans.
  • briefs/ - Project briefs and scoping documents for upcoming work.
  • issues/ - Detailed issue analyses and technical reproductions (not standard trackers).
  • audit/ - Audit reports and claims ledgers.

Operations & Usage

  • examples/ - Usage examples and reference integrations.
  • workbench/ - Documentation for the CORE workbench UI and related tooling.
  • agents/ - Agent-specific operational guides.

    Note regarding agents/grok/: Operational guide for using Grok 4.3 + Grok Build with CORE. This is not architecture documentation.

Learning & Evaluation

  • curriculum/ - Documentation on the teaching/learning order and knowledge progression.
  • evals/ - Evaluation methodology and performance criteria documentation.
  • benchmarks/ - Benchmark evidence and performance tracking logs.

Historical & Experimental

  • sessions/ - Chronological session logs documenting the "decision trail" and intellectual history of major choices.
  • handoffs/ - Legacy brief, audit, and investigation notes (historical; the formal HANDOFF mechanism is retired — see AGENTS.md for the current lightweight session-break-summary-<DATETIME>.md convention).
  • research/ - Raw research notes and preliminary findings.
  • lab/ - Experimental content (Warning: Not ratified; must not be referenced as authoritative in production PRs).

External

  • outreach/ - External communications and messaging.
  • zig/ - Scoped documentation for the Zig language components.