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Shay
46ded6b287 docs: ADR-0114a — anti-overfitting proof obligations for expert promotion
Documentation-only amendment to ADR-0114. Locks in the 10-point
falsifiable proof framework that any future `expert` ledger-tier
promotion (ADR-0120+) MUST require.

The obligations:

  1.  Sealed-holdout discipline
  2.  OOD surface variation ≥ 0.95 of public
  3.  Every correct answer ships with replay-equal trace
  4.  Refusal is first-class; misparse rate zero; zero `wrong` answers
  5.  Reasoning-isolation perturbation suite (invariance + predictable change)
  6.  Compositional-depth curve flat within documented ε
  7.  Frontier-baseline comparison on identical items, published
  8.  Adversarial generation; misparse rate zero
  9.  Determinism across release boundaries
  10. Operation provenance via the pack (not hardcoded strings)

Each obligation is load-bearing and falsifiable: a domain that
cannot satisfy any one stays at `audit-passed`. ADR-0114a binds
ADR-0116..ADR-0120 to carry the obligations into implementation;
ADR-0120 finally invokes all ten as hard gates.

The audit-passed tier (ADR-0106/0109/0113) is unaffected. The two
tiers measure orthogonal properties: audit-passed verifies CORE
claim-shape compliance (transformer-unreachable invariants); expert
verifies capability with anti-overfitting proof.

No code change. Pure forward contract for the next phase of work.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-22 16:16:52 -07:00