docs: two lift attempts falsified + the ADR-0207 architectural impasse

Built and measured two committing readers on held-out (not just diagnosed):
- resolve_pooled composer: 2 correct / 87 wrong (17%)
- maximally-narrow forced reader: 0 correct / 61 wrong (100% when it fires)

Shallow committing CANNOT be sound on real GSM8K (measured). The impasse:
- candidate-graph path is SOUND (wrong=0) but FROZEN by ADR-0207 §4, covers 0 real
- composer is OPEN (ADR-0207 §5) but UNSOUND (17% wrong, no separating gate)
ADR-0207's premise (composer is the wrong=0-safe path) is FALSIFIED by held-out data;
'feed the composer' is a path to more confabulation. Needs a follow-up ADR.
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Shay 2026-06-04 02:47:03 -07:00
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@ -51,6 +51,37 @@ keeps the 2 would be overfit to those exact cases (the same disease that produce
breach). The disagreement rule, the substrate's main `wrong=0` defence, fails on the 54
lone-chain wrongs by construction.
## 3b. Two lift attempts, both empirically falsified (not just diagnosed)
I did not stop at diagnosis — I built and measured two committing readers on held-out:
| Attempt | held-out 500 | result |
|---|---|---|
| `resolve_pooled` (the built composer) | 2 correct / **87 wrong** | 17% confabulation |
| Maximally-narrow forced reader (exactly 2 grounded quantities + one unambiguous op cue, refuse otherwise) | 0 correct / **61 wrong** | **100% confabulation when it fires** |
The narrow reader is the more brutal result: GSM8K problems that *look* like "2 numbers + a
cue word" are almost never 2-operand problems — they are multi-step problems where the
shallow reading is wrong **every single time**. Shallow committing **cannot** be sound on
real GSM8K. This is measured, not asserted.
## 3c. The architectural impasse (the load-bearing finding)
CORE has two GSM8K paths, and the held-out data shows **neither can soundly lift capability**:
- **The candidate-graph / recognizer-injector path is SOUND** (`wrong=0` on held-out) — but
it is **frozen** by ADR-0207 §4 to "lexeme-recognition + refusal-only, no new positive
capability," and it covers **0** real cases.
- **The derivation composer is OPEN** (ADR-0207 §5 routes all positive capability here) — but
it is **unsound** (17% wrong on held-out, no separating gate).
**This falsifies ADR-0207's central premise.** ADR-0207 froze the regex path and deferred all
positive capability to the composer *on the belief that the composer is the `wrong=0`-safe
mechanism*. The first held-out measurement shows the opposite: **the frozen path was the sound
one; the open path confabulates.** The ratified strategy locked out the only sound mechanism
in favor of an unsound one. ADR-0207 §5 needs re-opening with this evidence (a follow-up ADR),
because "feed the composer" is a path to *more confabulation*, not lift.
## 4. What this means (honest, load-bearing)
1. **The only `wrong=0`-safe policy on real GSM8K is refusal.** Current serving (0/0/500) is