docs(analysis): close Inc3 rate-followup evidence loop
Add Inc3 lookback documenting merged #799 behavior, stale pinned report.json vs live ephemeral frontier (rate no-injection = 0), and loop-closure criteria before Gate A1. Update roadmap v2 status. Split frontier tests: historical pinned artifact vs live post-Inc3 runner invariant.
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**Status:** Living document (docs-only update)
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**Date:** 2026-06-17
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**Context:** Post PR #797 (rate injection) + #798; preparing Inc3 rate follow-up before Gate A1 comparative injection.
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**Context:** Post PR #797 (rate injection), #798 (Grok governance), #799 (Inc3 rate connector); Inc3 evidence closure is the current hygiene step before Gate A1 comparative injection.
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## Overview
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This v2 roadmap refines the GSM8K Workstream A path and the broader capability sequencing after the rate injection delivered by PR #797.
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As of 2026-06-17, PR #797 is merged and #798 is merged.
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As of 2026-06-17: PR #797, #798, and #799 are merged.
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## GSM8K Workstream A
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- Inc 1: reader/recognizer baseline lift (discrete etc.)
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- Inc 2: frontier measurement + stale doctrine repair + narrow rate injection (PR #797)
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- **Inc 3 (current seam):** Complete the post-#797 rate-follow-up evidence loop: run frontier report from current main, identify the remaining rate-family blocker, and ship at most one narrow Inc3 increment before comparative injection.
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- Inc 3: `"one"` connector for rate_with_currency (PR #799) — **shipped**
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- **Current hygiene step:** Inc3 evidence closure (lookback + frontier test semantics; pinned `report.json` remains historical; live ephemeral frontier shows `rate_with_currency` no-injection = 0)
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### Recommended Inc3 target (narrow)
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@ -29,28 +30,24 @@ Inc3 selected #2 (connector for "for one cup"/"one" token) because live debug on
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"Complete and harden PR #797" is revised as: Complete the post-#797 rate-follow-up evidence loop: run frontier report from current main, identify the remaining rate-family blocker, and ship at most one narrow Inc3 increment before comparative injection.
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As of 2026-06-17, PR #797 is merged and #798 is merged.
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Explicitly: do not broaden to full rate language family, comparative injection, or non-rate categories in this increment.
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Explicitly: Inc3 did not broaden to full rate language family, comparative injection, or non-rate categories.
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## Gate A1 / Comparative Injection
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Deferred until after the post-#797 rate follow-up loop is closed with Inc3 measurement.
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**Next** after Inc3 evidence closure merges. Ratify-first (docs/analysis gate-a1 ratification) before any comparative injector code.
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## Success Criteria for This Phase
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## Success Criteria (Inc3 — met on main; evidence closure completes governance)
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- Frontier report run on current main (train-sample proxy).
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- One narrow ratified Inc3 change.
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- Wrong=0 preserved on train_sample, practice, and relevant confusers.
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- Rate-family "recognized_no_injection" bucket reduced or its refusal mode made actionable (e.g. surfaces the true next blocker like denom reachability).
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- Inc3 ratified change merged (#799).
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- Live ephemeral frontier: `rate_with_currency` no-injection = 0; aggregate proxy 6/44/0, wrong=0.
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- Pinned `report.json` may remain historical; live measurement via ephemeral runner or synthetic frontier tests.
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- Inc3 lookback committed (docs/analysis/gsm8k-workstream-a-increment-3-lookback-2026-06-17.md).
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- No rebaseline of sealed lanes or SHA movement without separate ratification.
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- Documentation (this roadmap + Inc3 ratification) committed as docs-first.
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## Out of Scope (for Inc3)
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## Out of Scope (Inc3 — held)
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- Full comparative (Gate A1) implementation.
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- Broad recognizer anchor work or other shape categories.
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- Changes to serving sealed paths.
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- Any mutation of identity, policy, or algebra invariants.
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- Denominator-state production, report.json rebaseline, broad recognizer work.
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- Changes to serving sealed paths, identity, policy, or algebra invariants.
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Follow the ratified Inc3 doc for the exact bounded change.
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See Inc3 lookback for loop-closure criterion before Gate A1.
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# GSM8K Workstream A Increment 3 — rate followup lookback
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**Date:** 2026-06-17 (post-merge evidence closure)
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**Branch (implementation):** feat/gsm8k-workstream-a-inc3-rate-followup (merged as PR #799)
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**Head (merged on main):** 8a981e66c716f020b5558c584d39084fadee5011
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**Governing ratification:** docs/analysis/gsm8k-workstream-a-increment-3-rate-followup-ratification-2026-06-17.md
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**Evidence-closure PR branch:** docs/gsm8k-workstream-a-inc3-lookback (this lookback + test semantics; no runtime logic)
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## What shipped (PR #799 merged)
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Inc3 closed the post-#797 rate connector blocker: the `"one"` token in **for one <unit>** rate surfaces is now a valid `apply_rate` rate anchor.
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### Exact semantic path
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1. **Matcher** (`generate/recognizer_match.py`): when the currency-per-unit regex captures connector `q`, if `q in ("each", "every", "a", "one")` then `connector = q` and `rate_anchor_token` is set to that literal (e.g. `"one"` for *for one cup*).
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2. **Roundtrip whitelist** (`generate/math_roundtrip.py`): `RATE_ANCHORS` includes `"one"` alongside `per`, `each`, `every`, `a`, `an`.
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3. **Injector** (`generate/recognizer_anchor_inject.py`): `inject_rate_with_currency` accepts `rate_anchor_token in ("per", "each", "every", "a", "an", "one")`; on success emits `CandidateOperation(kind="apply_rate", operand=Rate(...))` with `matched_verb` grounded to the literal connector.
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No other runtime modules changed solver semantics, sealed lanes, graph construction, or serving policy.
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### Files in the merged implementation (#799)
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- generate/math_roundtrip.py
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- generate/recognizer_match.py
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- generate/recognizer_anchor_inject.py
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- tests/test_recognizer_anchor_inject.py
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- tests/test_math_candidate_graph_rate_injection.py
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- tests/test_gsm8k_frontier_report.py
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- tests/test_candidate_graph_recognizer_wiring.py
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- docs/analysis/gsm8k-workstream-a-increment-3-rate-followup-ratification-2026-06-17.md
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- docs/analysis/core-problem-solving-capability-roadmap-v2-2026-06-17.md (partial update at merge time)
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## Measurement truth (pinned vs live)
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### Pinned committed artifact (historical / stale for rate bucket)
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`evals/gsm8k_math/train_sample/v1/report.json` remains the **pre-Inc2/Inc3 runner output** committed at the Inc1 rebaseline:
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- **6 correct / 44 refused / 0 wrong**
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- `recognized_no_injection_by_category.rate_with_currency: 3` (Tina *an hour*, Alexa *for one cup*, Erica *per kg* still show injector-level no-injection strings)
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This artifact is **intentionally not rebaselined** in Inc3 or this evidence-closure PR. Frontier script analysis on the pinned file still reports `rate_with_currency: 3` — that is expected and documents the historical measurement surface Inc2 targeted.
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### Live ephemeral runner (current main code, not committed)
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`build_report(cases)` on current main (ephemeral invocation; no `report.json` write):
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| Metric | Value |
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|--------|-------|
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| correct | 6 |
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| refused | 44 |
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| wrong | 0 |
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| `rate_with_currency` in `recognized_no_injection` | **0** |
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| total `recognized_no_injection` | 31 (was 32 on pinned artifact) |
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| live `recognized_no_injection_by_category` | `discrete_count_statement: 19`, `temporal_aggregation: 2`, `multiplicative_aggregation: 3`, `descriptive_setup_no_quantity: 4`, `currency_amount: 3` |
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**Interpretation:** rate surfaces no longer refuse at the injector boundary. Refusal moved **downstream** (e.g. `no admissible candidate for statement`, `no branch produced a solvable graph`) because denom-state / composition blockers remain. This matches Inc3 ratification §2: actionable evidence, not correct-count lift.
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`evals/gsm8k_math/train_sample/v1/refusal_rescan_v3.json` corroborates Tina/Alexa cases: `current_refusal_reason` is `no admissible candidate for statement`, not `produced no injection`.
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## wrong=0
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- Pinned artifact: `wrong: 0`
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- Live ephemeral runner: `wrong: 0`
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- Inc3 unit/graph tests exercise confusers; no wrong answers admitted on exercised paths.
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## Explicit non-changes (Inc3 scope held)
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- **No** `report.json` rebaseline committed
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- **No** denominator-state production (hour/kg/cup Initial seeding)
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- **No** comparative injection / Gate A1
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- **No** sealed-lane movement (`_SEALED_INJECTORS` remains empty; train_sample uses `sealed=False`)
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- **No** serving SHA / CLAIMS movement
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- **No** `determine()` / FrameVerdict / CLOSE interaction
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- **No** corpus/pack/policy/identity mutation
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- **No** solver `_apply_rate` semantic change
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## Known caveats
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1. **Aggregate proxy unchanged:** still 6/44/0 and `passed=false` (`correct_min=10`). Inc3 did not claim net correct lift.
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2. **Refusal-family reclassification:** rate cases may move from `recognized_no_injection` to `no_admissible_statement` or graph unsolvability — not to `correct`.
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3. **Pinned frontier tests:** tests that read committed `report.json` encode the **historical** rate bucket (3× no-injection). Live-behavior tests use ephemeral `build_report` or synthetic fixtures (see `tests/test_gsm8k_frontier_report.py`).
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4. **Erica / denom reachability:** third rate case may still refuse downstream for actor/denom reasons; connector fix does not solve inverse *for one cup* pricing semantics.
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5. **Inc3 lookback was missing until this PR:** ratification landed with #799; lookback + roadmap status update closes the governance loop before Gate A1 ratification.
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## Loop-closure criterion (for Gate A1 readiness)
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The post-#797 rate follow-up loop is **closed** when all of the following hold:
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1. PR #799 merged with `"one"` connector in matcher + roundtrip + injector (**done**).
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2. Live ephemeral frontier shows `rate_with_currency` no-injection = **0** (**done** on current main).
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3. `wrong_total == 0` on train_sample proxy (**done**).
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4. This lookback + roadmap status committed; frontier tests distinguish pinned historical artifact from live post-Inc3 behavior (**this PR**).
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5. No `report.json` rebaseline unless separately ratified (**held**).
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Gate A1 comparative ratification may proceed after this evidence-closure PR merges.
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## Tests (evidence-closure PR adds/clarifies)
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Focused lane (from worktree):
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```
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.venv/bin/python -m pytest tests/test_gsm8k_frontier_report.py -q
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.venv/bin/python -m pytest tests/test_recognizer_anchor_inject.py -q
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.venv/bin/python -m pytest tests/test_math_candidate_graph_rate_injection.py -q
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.venv/bin/python -m pytest tests/test_candidate_graph_recognizer_wiring.py -q
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```
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See PR body for exact captured outputs at commit time.
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## Post-merge obligations
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- Ratify Gate A1 multiplicative comparative injection (docs-only) before any comparative code.
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- Preserve wrong=0, sealed discipline, and ratify-first on all Workstream A follow-ons.
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- Do not treat pinned `report.json` rate bucket as live-state without ephemeral runner corroboration.
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This lookback is truthful to merged #799 behavior, the stale pinned artifact, and ephemeral live measurement. No benchmark theater; no hidden rebaseline.
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"""Tests for the deterministic GSM8K frontier report analyzer (Inc 2).
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"""Tests for the deterministic GSM8K frontier report analyzer (Inc 2 + Inc3 evidence).
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These tests pin:
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- Stable bucketing of the exact refusal reasons emitted by the candidate graph.
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- Correct extraction of category=... from "recognizer matched but produced no injection" strings.
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- rate_with_currency appears as a prominent recognized_no_injection category on the committed train-sample report (the measurement target of Inc 2).
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- **Pinned historical artifact:** committed report.json still encodes pre-Inc2/Inc3 rate
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no-injection (Inc 2 measurement target); not rebaselined by policy.
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- **Live post-Inc3 behavior:** ephemeral train_sample runner shows rate_with_currency
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no-injection = 0 after #799 connector support.
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- Fully deterministic output (sorted keys, no timestamps, repeatable across runs).
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"""
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_REPORT = _REPO_ROOT / "evals/gsm8k_math/train_sample/v1/report.json"
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def test_analyze_report_is_deterministic_and_has_expected_buckets():
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"""Run on the real post-Inc1 report; assert structure and rate frontier presence."""
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def test_pinned_report_json_is_historical_pre_inc3_artifact():
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"""Committed report.json is the stale Inc1-era measurement artifact.
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Inc2 used this file to surface rate_with_currency no-injection (3 cases).
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Inc3 (#799) changed live code but did not rebaseline report.json — this test
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preserves the historical frontier pin for replayability of Inc2 evidence.
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"""
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assert _REPORT.exists(), "report.json must be present for frontier measurement"
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summary = analyze_report(_REPORT)
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c = summary["counts"]
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assert c["correct"] == 6
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assert c["refused"] == 44
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assert c.get("wrong", 0) == 0
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assert c.get("recognized_no_injection", 0) > 0
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# The Inc-2 target: rate_with_currency must be visible in the no-injection frontier
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# Historical Inc-2 target: rate_with_currency visible in pinned no-injection frontier
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no_inj = summary["recognized_no_injection_by_category"]
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assert "rate_with_currency" in no_inj
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assert no_inj["rate_with_currency"] >= 1 # at minimum the Tina case and peers
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assert no_inj["rate_with_currency"] == 3
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# Determinism: re-running produces byte-identical structure (keys sorted)
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summary2 = analyze_report(_REPORT)
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assert json.dumps(summary, sort_keys=True) == json.dumps(summary2, sort_keys=True)
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def test_post_inc3_live_runner_has_zero_rate_no_injection():
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"""Live train_sample scoring on current code: rate bucket no longer at injector."""
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import re
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from collections import Counter
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from evals.gsm8k_math.train_sample.v1.runner import build_report
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cases_path = _REPO_ROOT / "evals/gsm8k_math/train_sample/v1/cases.jsonl"
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cases = [
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json.loads(line)
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for line in cases_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8").splitlines()
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if line.strip()
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]
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report = build_report(cases)
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assert report["counts"]["correct"] == 6
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assert report["counts"]["refused"] == 44
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assert report["counts"]["wrong"] == 0
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cats: Counter[str] = Counter()
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for row in report["per_case"]:
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reason = row.get("reason", "")
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if "produced no injection" not in reason:
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continue
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m = re.search(r"category=(\w+)", reason)
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if m:
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cats[m.group(1)] += 1
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assert cats.get("rate_with_currency", 0) == 0
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def test_classify_and_extract_category_logic():
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"""Unit the internal classification on the exact reason strings the graph emits."""
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# We exercise via the public analyze path with a tiny synthetic report
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