feat(adr): ADR-0107 mathematics_logic expert-demo promotion deferred (#114)

The ADR-0106 contract correctly refused promotion. ADR-0107 records the
deferral and reserves two follow-up ADRs:

- ADR-0109 (lane-shape-aware threshold amendment): ADR-0106 \xc2\xa71.2
  prescribes cognition-pack-shape metrics uniformly, but math /
  physics / systems / hebrew-greek lanes carry native shapes
  (accuracy, passed_rate, all_pass_rate). Prerequisite for any future
  expert-demo promotion.
- ADR-0110 (math re-attempt): conditional on ADR-0109 landing and
  inference_closure substantively passing (currently all_pass_rate=0.4
  on public).

tests/test_adr_0107_deferral.py pins adr_0107_no_silent_promotion: math
stays at reasoning-capable, has no expert_demo_claims entry, and the
ledger row carries a named refusal reason.

No change to core/capability/expert_demo.py or reporting.py -- the
contract is honored, not amended. README sequencing updated to reflect
ADR-0107 acceptance and the new ADR-0109/0110 prerequisites.

docs/decisions/ADR-0107-mathematics-logic-expert-demo-deferred.md

@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@
+# ADR-0107 — `mathematics_logic` Expert-Demo Promotion: Deferred
+
+**Status:** Accepted (decision: defer promotion)
+**Date:** 2026-05-22
+**Author:** CORE agents + reviewers
+**Depends on:** ADR-0091, ADR-0092, ADR-0097, ADR-0106, ADR-0108
+
+---
+
+## Context
+
+ADR-0108 reserved ADR-0107 as the first worked expert-demo promotion
+against the ADR-0106 contract, with `mathematics_logic` named as the
+smallest expert-demo proof surface across the four ratified domains.
+
+On evaluation, the ADR-0106 gate correctly refused to promote
+`mathematics_logic`. ADR-0107 records that refusal honestly and reserves
+the follow-up ADRs needed before promotion can re-attempt.
+
+This is the contract working as designed. ADR-0106 §Consequences
+predicted that "reasoning-capable" should not equal "demonstrated"; the
+first promotion attempt has now surfaced two specific evidence-side
+gaps that prove the gap is real.
+
+---
+
+## Evidence
+
+`mathematics_logic` attaches three eval lanes via
+`language_packs/data/en_mathematics_logic_v1/manifest.json`:
+
+| Lane | Public split | Holdout split | Notes |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| `elementary_mathematics_ood` | `accuracy=1.0`, all C01–C13 cases pass | `accuracy=1.0`, `passed=39/39` | Reports lane-shape metrics, not cognition-shape metrics |
+| `inference_closure` | `all_pass_rate=0.4`, `overall_pass=False` | requires `CORE_HOLDOUT_KEY` (sealed under ADR-0105) | Lane is currently below any reasonable promotion threshold |
+| `fabrication_control` | refusals clean (`fabricated=0` across phantom / cross-pack / sibling-collapse classes) | not formally re-run after ADR-0105 sealing | Required by ADR-0106 §1.3 |
+
+Neither `elementary_mathematics_ood` nor `inference_closure` nor
+`fabrication_control` reports the four metric keys ADR-0106 §1.2 prescribes
+(`surface_groundedness`, `term_capture_rate`, `intent_accuracy`,
+`versor_closure_rate`). Those keys are cognition-pack-shape; the math
+lanes carry their own native shapes.
+
+---
+
+## Decision
+
+`mathematics_logic` is **not** promoted to `expert_demo=true`. The
+ledger row stays at `reasoning-capable`. The reviewer registry receives
+**no** `expert_demo_claims` entry as part of this ADR.
+
+This is a positive decision recording two concrete blocking gaps:
+
+### Gap 1 — ADR-0106 metric-shape uniformity assumption
+
+ADR-0106 §1.2 prescribes cognition-shape thresholds uniformly across
+every attached lane. In practice, each lane reports its own native
+metric shape (`accuracy`, `passed_rate`, `all_pass_rate`,
+`derived_recall_rate`). Enforcing cognition-shape keys uniformly causes
+every non-cognition lane to fail the gate by absence-of-key, not by
+substance.
+
+**Resolution path:** ADR-0109 (reserved) — amend ADR-0106 with a
+lane-shape adaptation layer that maps each lane's native metric to a
+contract-bearing threshold. Candidate shapes already observable in the
+repo:
+
+- `cognition_shape` — the original four keys, used by the cognition pack
+- `accuracy_shape` — single `accuracy` key, used by
+  `elementary_mathematics_ood`
+- `refusal_shape` — `fabricated`/`refused` counts, used by
+  `fabrication_control`
+- `inference_shape` — `all_pass_rate` + `replay_determinism`, used by
+  `inference_closure`
+
+ADR-0109 must specify the contract-bearing threshold per shape and pin
+the mapping so a future lane introduces its shape explicitly rather
+than silently broadening the gate.
+
+### Gap 2 — `inference_closure` lane substantively fails
+
+`inference_closure` reports `all_pass_rate=0.4` on the public v1 split.
+Whether the failure is a runner bug, a case-set issue, or a genuine
+substrate gap is unresolved. Either way, the lane is not a positive
+signal for promotion at present.
+
+**Resolution path:** Triage `inference_closure` failures (5 of 5 cases
+on dev, 12 of 20 on public). Until that lane crosses an explicit
+threshold under the ADR-0109 shape rules, `mathematics_logic` cannot
+promote regardless of how the metric-shape question is resolved.
+
+---
+
+## Follow-up ADRs reserved
+
+| ADR | Purpose |
+|---|---|
+| **ADR-0109** | Lane-shape-aware threshold rules amending ADR-0106. |
+| **ADR-0110** | Re-attempt `mathematics_logic` expert-demo promotion under the ADR-0109-amended contract, conditional on `inference_closure` substantively passing. |
+
+ADR-0107 explicitly does **not** pre-decide ADR-0110's outcome. It only
+records that the current evidence cannot support promotion.
+
+---
+
+## Invariants
+
+### `adr_0107_no_silent_promotion`
+
+No `expert_demo_claims` entry for `mathematics_logic` exists in
+`docs/reviewers.yaml` as a result of this ADR. A pytest gate confirms
+the math row in `ledger_report()` reports
+`predicates.expert_demo == false`.
+
+### `adr_0106_refusal_recorded`
+
+The `expert_demo_reason` field for the math row must name at least one
+of the documented blockers (missing metric keys or
+`inference_closure` failure). This is informational; it gives operators
+a one-line legible reason without forcing them to read this ADR.
+
+---
+
+## Acceptance evidence
+
+Accepted when:
+
+- this ADR lands at `Accepted (decision: defer promotion)`
+- README "Current frontier" updated: ADR-0107 moves out of the
+  Proposed-ADR sequencing list; ADR-0109 and ADR-0110 enter as reserved
+- `tests/test_adr_0107_deferral.py` pins `adr_0107_no_silent_promotion`
+  against the live ledger
+- no change to `core/capability/expert_demo.py` or
+  `core/capability/reporting.py` — the contract is honored, not amended
+
+---
+
+## Consequences
+
+- The ADR-0106 contract has demonstrated its load-bearing behavior: it
+  refused a promotion attempt that the previous code-path would have
+  silently failed-true on cognition metrics the math domain never
+  produced.
+- "`reasoning-capable`" remains an honest ceiling for
+  `mathematics_logic`. External readers can see in `ledger_report()`
+  that the row sits at `reasoning-capable` with a named blocker.
+- The frontier shifts: ADR-0109 (metric-shape amendment) becomes the
+  prerequisite work for any future expert-demo promotion across all
+  four ratified domains, not just math.
+
+---
+
+## Out of scope
+
+- This ADR does not amend ADR-0106. The amendment is ADR-0109's scope.
+- This ADR does not investigate or fix `inference_closure`. That work
+  is a prerequisite to ADR-0110, scoped to wherever the substrate gap
+  actually lives.
+- This ADR does not change the ratification status of `physics`,
+  `systems_software`, or `hebrew_greek_textual_reasoning`. Each will
+  face the same metric-shape question and should be re-evaluated under
+  ADR-0109 when that lands.

docs/decisions/README.md

@@ -26,6 +26,7 @@ ADRs record significant architectural decisions: what was decided, why, what alt
 | [ADR-0104](ADR-0104-curriculum-sourced-teaching-proposals.md) | Curriculum-Sourced Teaching Proposals | Accepted (2026-05-22) |
 | [ADR-0105](ADR-0105-sealed-holdout-encryption.md) | Sealed Holdout Encryption via age | Accepted (2026-05-22) |
 | [ADR-0106](ADR-0106-expert-demo-promotion-contract.md) | Expert-Demo Promotion Contract | Accepted (2026-05-22) |
+| [ADR-0107](ADR-0107-mathematics-logic-expert-demo-deferred.md) | `mathematics_logic` Expert-Demo Promotion — Deferred | Accepted (2026-05-22) |
 | [ADR-0108](ADR-0108-proposed-adr-sequencing.md) | Proposed-ADR Sequencing Post-ADR-0105 | Accepted (2026-05-22) |
 
 ---
@@ -64,10 +65,11 @@ Seven lanes are SHA-pinned in `scripts/verify_lane_shas.py` and gated by the `la
 
 Sequencing per ADR-0108. Listed in priority order:
 
-1. **ADR-0107 (reserved) — `mathematics_logic` expert-demo promotion.** First worked promotion against the now-Accepted ADR-0106 contract. Smallest expert-demo proof surface across the four ratified domains.
+1. **ADR-0109 (reserved) — ADR-0106 lane-shape-aware threshold amendment.** ADR-0107 surfaced that ADR-0106 §1.2 prescribes cognition-pack-shape metrics uniformly, but math/physics/systems/hebrew-greek lanes carry their own native shapes (`accuracy`, `passed_rate`, `all_pass_rate`). Prerequisite to any future expert-demo promotion.
-2. **[ADR-0080](ADR-0080-contemplation-loop.md) — Contemplation Loop.** Sandboxed, read-only Phase 1 self-interrogation; emits `SPECULATIVE` findings from `frontier_compare` reports. Converts gap-finding from human-driven to system-emitted-and-reviewed.
+2. **ADR-0110 (reserved) — `mathematics_logic` expert-demo re-attempt.** Conditional on ADR-0109 landing AND `inference_closure` substantively passing (currently `all_pass_rate=0.4` on public).
-3. **[ADR-0084](ADR-0084-definitional-layer.md) — Definitional Layer for Lexicon Packs.** Optional per-entry definitional block. Deferred pending ADR-0107 — value surfaces during a worked expert promotion that needs definitional depth.
+3. **[ADR-0080](ADR-0080-contemplation-loop.md) — Contemplation Loop.** Sandboxed, read-only Phase 1 self-interrogation; emits `SPECULATIVE` findings from `frontier_compare` reports. Converts gap-finding from human-driven to system-emitted-and-reviewed.
-4. **[ADR-0087](ADR-0087-rhetorical-style-axis.md) — Rhetorical Style Axis.** A third substantive selection axis sibling to anchor-lens. Lowest current priority — no active downstream consumer; register + anchor-lens already demonstrate the orthogonality pattern.
+4. **[ADR-0084](ADR-0084-definitional-layer.md) — Definitional Layer for Lexicon Packs.** Optional per-entry definitional block. Deferred — value surfaces during a worked expert promotion that needs definitional depth.
+5. **[ADR-0087](ADR-0087-rhetorical-style-axis.md) — Rhetorical Style Axis.** A third substantive selection axis sibling to anchor-lens. Lowest current priority — no active downstream consumer; register + anchor-lens already demonstrate the orthogonality pattern.
 
 ### Open candidate directions (no ADR yet)
 
@@ -77,7 +79,7 @@ Sequencing per ADR-0108. Listed in priority order:
 
 ## Accepted reasoning-capable domains
 
-Per ADR-0106, `expert_demo` is **contract-gated**, not threshold-only: a domain row may carry `expert_demo=true` only when a reviewer-signed `expert_demo_claims` entry exists whose evidence-bundle digest reproduces byte-for-byte. All four currently-ratified domains sit at `expert_demo=false` until a worked promotion ADR (ADR-0107+) lands.
+Per ADR-0106, `expert_demo` is **contract-gated**, not threshold-only: a domain row may carry `expert_demo=true` only when a reviewer-signed `expert_demo_claims` entry exists whose evidence-bundle digest reproduces byte-for-byte. ADR-0107 attempted the first worked promotion (`mathematics_logic`) and the contract refused — recording two evidence-side blockers now reserved for follow-up as ADR-0109 (lane-shape amendment) and ADR-0110 (re-attempt). All four ratified domains sit at `expert_demo=false`.
 
 | Domain | Ratification ADR | Pack(s) | Evidence summary |
 |---|---|---|---|

tests/test_adr_0107_deferral.py

@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@
+"""ADR-0107 — `mathematics_logic` expert-demo deferral invariant.
+
+Pins `adr_0107_no_silent_promotion`: the ADR-0107 decision is *defer*,
+not promote. If a later change silently flips the math row to
+`expert_demo=true` without ADR-0109 + ADR-0110 landing first, this gate
+must fail.
+
+This test reads the *live* ledger, not a fixture. A green test asserts
+that the contract is behaving as ADR-0107 records: math sits at
+`reasoning-capable`, no `expert_demo_claims` entry for math is present,
+and the row carries a named refusal reason.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from core.capability.reporting import ledger_report
+from core.capability.reviewers import load_reviewer_registry
+from core.capability.sources import LEDGER_SOURCES
+from pathlib import Path
+
+
+_REPO_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
+
+
+def _math_row() -> dict:
+    report = ledger_report()
+    for row in report["domains"]:
+        if row["domain"] == "mathematics_logic":
+            return row
+    raise AssertionError("mathematics_logic row missing from ledger_report()")
+
+
+class TestAdr0107NoSilentPromotion:
+    def test_math_row_is_reasoning_capable_not_expert_demo(self) -> None:
+        row = _math_row()
+        assert row["predicates"]["reasoning_capable"] is True
+        assert row["predicates"]["expert_demo"] is False
+        assert row["status"] == "reasoning-capable"
+
+    def test_math_has_no_expert_demo_claim(self) -> None:
+        registry_path = _REPO_ROOT / LEDGER_SOURCES.reviewers
+        registry = load_reviewer_registry(registry_path)
+        assert registry.expert_demo_claim_for("mathematics_logic") is None
+
+    def test_refusal_reason_is_named(self) -> None:
+        row = _math_row()
+        reason = row.get("expert_demo_reason", "")
+        assert reason, "expert_demo_reason must be populated"
+        assert reason != "all expert-demo predicates satisfied"