docs(reader-arc): compare increment per-layer attrition funnel (diagnostic)
Instrument-first (PR #76 ruling): before touching the parser, measure where the 61 compare-marked TUNE cases die. Funnel: 57/61 die pre-enumeration; of those, **45 at the injection layer** ('recognizer matched but produced no injection'), 8 'no admissible candidate for statement', 3 'expected exactly one question sentence'; 3 solve today. Finding: the leverage is INJECTION (45/61), not the candidate regexes (which fire on clean clauses but the real multi-clause sentences never reach them) nor segmentation writ large. Injection is an EMITTER, so the sanctioned fix is making it inject compare candidates the recognizer already matches — never loosening the round-trip gate. Fix order by measured mass: injection (45) -> statement-admissibility (8) -> question-sentence (3). Tune-only development; single measure run at the end with refusal-by-reason + delta.
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docs/research/compare-increment-funnel-2026-07-18.md
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# compare_multiplicative Increment — Per-Layer Attrition Funnel (diagnostic artifact)
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**Status**: DIAGNOSTIC — instrument-first, decides the fix order (PR #76 ruling)
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**Date**: 2026-07-18
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**Scope**: the 61 compare-multiplicative-marked cases in the **tune** split of official `holdout_dev/v1`
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(measure split untouched). Signals are the reader's own: `branches_enumerated`, `refusal_reason`,
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`selected_graph`, then the corridor compiler.
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---
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## The funnel
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Reader pipeline stages: recognizer-match → **injection** → enumeration → admissibility → graph → solve.
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| Layer | Cases (of 61) |
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| :--- | ---: |
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| Died **pre-enumeration** | **57** |
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| Enumerated | 4 |
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| …enumerated but no graph | 1 |
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| …graph has a compare op | 3 |
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| **Solved today** | **3** |
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Pre-enumeration refusal reasons (the 57):
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| Reason | Cases |
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| :--- | ---: |
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| **"recognizer matched but produced no injection"** | **45** |
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| "no admissible candidate for statement" | 8 |
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| "expected exactly one question sentence" | 3 |
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| "no admissible candidate for question" | 1 |
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## The finding
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**The leverage is the injection layer: 45 / 61.** The recognizer already *matches* these compare
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statements (e.g. 0000: "Aria has twice as many … as Emily, who has twice the number … as Spencer");
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the **injection** step then produces no candidate — the multi-clause / compare shapes don't inject.
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This is where the mass is — not the candidate regexes (they fire on clean clauses but the real
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sentences never reach them), and not segmentation writ large.
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## Consequence for the fix (emitter-fix, not gate-loosening)
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Injection is an **emitter** (it produces candidates), not a validator — so making it inject
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compare candidates for statements the recognizer already matches is the sanctioned kind of change
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(fix emitters; never loosen the round-trip gate). The remaining piles are secondary and sequenced
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after: "no admissible candidate for statement" (8), the one-question-sentence constraint (3).
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Fix order, by measured mass: **injection (45) → statement-admissibility (8) → question-sentence (3)**.
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Each fix is developed against tune only, to `wrong=0` on tune; the measure split gets its single run
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at the end. Refusal-by-reason on the measure split (frequency / nested / anaphora / temporal /
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inverse-undeterminable) is reported with the delta as the fail-closed evidence + the practice-lane
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curriculum.
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